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Bundesliga

FC Union Berlin - Werder Bremen

03/08/2026, 04:30 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
FC Union Berlin
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Werder Bremen
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FUBWB

FC Union Berlin

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.04
Oliver Burke on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Woo-yeong Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Christopher Trimmel on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.91
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.09
Justin Njinmah on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
24% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

30%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 50%
  • Away Defense: Werder Bremen concedes an average of 2.09 goals per away game
  • Head-to-Head: Werder Bremen dominated recent direct encounters with 3 wins out of 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Union Berlin: FC Union Berlin's counter-oriented tactics result in an average of only 3.4 shots on target
  • Form Weakness: Both teams show a 'Negative' form trend and struggling goal production according to Advanced Stats
  • Squad Situation: Werder Bremen has an extensive injury list with multiple players sidelined
Overview

FC Union Berlin (11th place, 28 points) host Werder Bremen (16th place, 22 points) at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 8, 2026, 5:30 PM. Union Berlin aims to distance themselves from the relegation zone, while Werder Bremen is fighting for survival.

Form

FC Union Berlin's form across all competitions is LDLWL, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses from the last 5 games. Their last result was a loss. Werder Bremen's form in their last 5 matches is DLLLW, also with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. The visitors secured a win in their most recent outing. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Union Berlin averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.58 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded. Werder Bremen averages 1.04 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded per match. Away, their figures are 1.0 goals scored and 2.09 goals conceded. For Union Berlin, over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 of 24 games, and both teams scored in 14 games. For Werder Bremen, over 2.5 goals were also scored in 13 of 24 games, and both teams scored in 10 games. The Stadion An der Alten Försterei has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games and 3 of 5 games having over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters so far, FC Union Berlin achieved 1 win, Werder Bremen 3 wins, and there was 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 5:10 in favor of Werder Bremen. The last meeting on October 24, 2025, ended in a 0:1 away win for Werder Bremen. Recent head-to-head matches show a dominance by Werder Bremen.

Key Players

For FC Union Berlin, Andrej Ilic with 1 goal and 8 assists, Ilyas Ansah with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Rani Khedira with 5 goals are relevant players. Leopold Querfeld shows stable form with 2 goals in his last 3 games. Werder Bremen relies on Jens Stage (6 goals, 1 assist) and Romano Schmid (2 goals, 6 assists). Keke Topp, with 1 goal in his last 2 games, shows rising form. Not nominated for FC Union Berlin are Oliver Burke (4G/1A), Woo-yeong Jeong (2G/1A), and Christopher Trimmel (0G/2A). For Werder Bremen, Justin Njinmah (4G/0A) is not nominated.

Goalkeepers

Frederik Rønnow of FC Union Berlin made 24 season appearances and kept 5 clean sheets. His form is currently declining. Mio Backhaus, the goalkeeper for Werder Bremen, played in 22 season games and also achieved 5 clean sheets. His form trend is also declining.

Influences

FC Union Berlin scores an average of 1.21 goals at home and concedes 1.21 goals. Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.0 goals away and concedes 2.09 goals. The Stadion An der Alten Försterei has a history of an average of 2.8 goals per game. In 60% of the games, both teams scored, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals.

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