Liga Portugal
Casa Pia - Sporting Braga
04/23/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.5
1.7
1:1
13%0:2
12%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
5%What influences the xG?
Casa Pia
Sporting Braga
The Lab
- 1Sporting Braga: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Casa Pia with David Sousa: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Casa Pia: 71% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
16%
Draw
27%
Away Win
58%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
42%
Away or Draw
84%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Sporting Braga is the favorite for an away win with a 58% probability according to mathematical analysis
- Braga's strong away record with an average of 2.00 goals per game meets Casa Pia's low home scoring of 0.94 goals
- Casa Pia is missing players accounting for 25% of their usual starting XI goal threat (Cassiano, Rafael Brito), while Braga is missing only 11%
Risk Factors
- Casa Pia averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating difficulty in creating scoring opportunities
- Casa Pia's recent goal production has stagnated at 0.7 goals per game, compared to a season average of 1.1 goals
- Sporting Braga's recent goal production has stagnated at 1.8 goals per game, compared to a season average of 2.1 goals
Overview
Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) host Sporting Braga (4th place, 53 points) at EstĂĄdio Pina Manique. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 23, 2026, 8:00 PM. While Braga is fighting for European spots, Casa Pia is trying to avoid relegation.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Casa Pia's form across all competitions: DLDLD
They achieved 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last match result was a draw
Sporting Braga's form across all competitions: WDWWD
They achieved 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 matches
The last match result was a draw
Statistics
Casa Pia averages 0.94 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded in home games
Sporting Braga averages 2.00 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded in away games
The EstĂĄdio Pina Manique has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, while 2 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia secured 2 wins and Sporting Braga secured 3 wins
Casa Pia scored a total of 8 goals, while Sporting Braga scored 13 goals
The last encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 0:4 defeat for Casa Pia, with Sporting Braga winning away
Sporting Braga has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant is a key attacker with 3 season goals and 8 assists, holding an average rating of 7.05
Gaizka Larrazabal is a strong defender with 3 goals and 4 assists and a rating of 6.77
David Sousa, also in defense, contributed 2 season goals and has a rating of 6.75
For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta stands out with 14 season goals and 4 assists, although his current form is declining (avg 7.05)
Pau VĂctor scored 7 season goals and 4 assists, maintaining stable form with a current rating of 6.98
Defender VĂtor GĂłmez provided 1 goal and 3 assists and shows stable form with a rating of 6.89
Goalkeepers
Casa Pia's goalkeeper, Patrick Sequeira, kept 6 clean sheets this season
Sporting Braga's goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Influences
Casa Pia's home games at EstĂĄdio Pina Manique average 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of the last 5 home matches
2 out of the last 5 home matches had over 2.5 goals