Liga Portugal
Arouca - Benfica
03/14/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.4
1.5
1:1
14%0:1
12%0:0
11%0:2
10%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Arouca
Benfica
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
30%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Benfica's strong away record: 2.09 goals scored per game, only 0.55 goals conceded
- Historical dominance by Benfica: 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 head-to-head matches with 17:2 goals
- The mathematical analysis predicts Benfica to win with a 49% probability
Risk Factors
- Benfica's current goal production has slowed (1.6 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.9 goals per game)
- Benfica is missing key players, including F. Aursnes (3 goals/3 assists) who is on rest
- Arouca is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.3 goals per game)
Overview
Arouca (11th place, 26 points) host Benfica (3rd place, 59 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca. The Liga Portugal match takes place on March 14, 2026, 8:30 PM. Benfica aims to close the gap to the top of the table
Form
Arouca's form in the last five games is WLWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to two wins and three losses. Arouca's recent form trend is positive, as they are currently scoring more often (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.3 goals per game).
Benfica shows a form of LWLWD in their last five matches. They recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses. Benfica's goal production has slowed down (1.6 goals per game) compared to their season average of 1.9 goals
Statistics
Arouca scored an average of 1.31 goals in home games and conceded 1.77 goals per match. Benfica demonstrated strong offensive performance in away games with an average of 2.09 goals scored and a very solid defense, conceding only 0.55 goals per away game. At the Estádio Municipal de Arouca, an average of 3.2 goals were scored in the last five games. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the five head-to-head encounters between the two teams, Arouca has not recorded any wins so far. Benfica dominated these matches with four wins and one draw. The goal difference of 17:2 also clearly favors Benfica. The last meeting ended in a 5-0 victory for Benfica on October 25, 2025
Key Players
For Arouca, Alfonso Trezza (8 goals, 3 assists this season) and Hyun-ju Lee (5 goals, 3 assists this season) show offensive impact. Iván Barbero contributed 5 goals and 1 assist this season. He scored 2 goals in his last 5 games.
For Benfica, Vangelis Pavlidis is the top scorer of the season with 21 goals and 4 assists. Andreas Schjelderup has 4 goals and 2 assists, while Leandro Barreiro contributed 2 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Arouca's goalkeeper, Ignacio de Arruabarrena, made 8 season appearances. His counterpart Anatoliy Trubin of Benfica played in 23 season games. Arouca recorded 2 clean sheets at home this season, while Benfica achieved 7 clean sheets away
Influences
Arouca's home strength is reflected in an average of 1.31 goals scored per home game. The Estádio Municipal de Arouca is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals per match in the last five encounters. The 'Both Teams to Score' rate is 60%, and 'Over 2.5 Goals' was exceeded in 80% of matches