Liga Portugal
AVS - Santa Clara
03/15/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.3
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
12%0:2
9%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
AVS
Santa Clara
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
31%
Away Win
44%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
56%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Santa Clara with 44%
- Santa Clara dominated all 3 previous head-to-head matches with 3 wins and a 6:2 goal difference
- Santa Clara demonstrates a more stable defensive performance with an average of 1.24 goals conceded compared to AVS with 2.28 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
- AVS is missing Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola, which reduces the starting lineup's goal threat by a critical 30% (active goal share at 70%)
- AVS scores an average of only 0.71 home goals per game
- AVS shows a low number of 1.8 shots on target according to tactical analysis
Overview
AVS (18th place, 10 points) host Santa Clara (16th place, 22 points) at the Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves
This Liga Portugal match on March 15, 2026, 4:30 PM, is a direct clash in the relegation battle
Both teams urgently need points to avoid relegation
Form
AVS's form across all competitions shows 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (LWLDD)
AVS drew their last two matches
Santa Clara also has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (LLDDW) and won their last game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
According to analysis, AVS is currently scoring more frequently (1.33 goals per game) than their season average (0.78 goals per game)
Santa Clara is also scoring more frequently (1.2 goals per game) than their season average (1.07 goals per game)
Both teams show a positive form trend
Statistics
AVS scores an average of 0.71 goals in home games and concedes 1.64 goals
Over the entire season, AVS has scored an average of 0.72 goals and conceded 2.28 goals, with 3 clean sheets
Santa Clara scored an average of 0.91 goals away from home and conceded 1.55 goals
Overall, Santa Clara scored an average of 0.88 goals and conceded 1.24 goals, with 6 clean sheets
The venue has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in 5 matches
In these matches, both teams scored in 0 out of 5 cases, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 3 past head-to-head matches, AVS has not secured a single victory
Santa Clara won all 3 encounters
The goal difference of 2:6 also clearly favors Santa Clara
The last meeting on October 25, 2025, ended with a 2:0 victory for Santa Clara
Santa Clara dominated recent encounters
Key Players
For AVS, Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete (3 season goals, recently 2 goals in 2 games, rising form trend) and Tomané (2 season goals, 1 assist, recently 1 goal and 1 assist in 2 games, rising form trend) are important offensive players
Guilherme Neiva Silva was involved in 1 goal and 1 assist this season
For Santa Clara, Serginho (4 season goals, 2 assists, rising form trend) is a key player
Gabriel Silva has scored 3 season goals
Gustavo Klismahn provided 1 season assist and 1 assist in the last 2 games, with a rising form trend
Vinícius Lopes (5 goals, 1 assist) is not nominated, which may affect the offense
Goalkeepers
AVS goalkeeper Adriel has recorded 2 clean sheets in home games out of 8 season appearances
Santa Clara goalkeeper Gabriel Batista was involved in 1 clean sheet in away games and 6 overall clean sheets out of 25 season appearances
Influences
The Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in 5 matches
In these matches, both teams scored in 0 out of 5 cases, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
The grass surface is a factor to consider
AVS scores 0.71 goals at home and concedes 1.64 goals
Santa Clara scores 0.91 goals away and concedes 1.55 goals