Liga Portugal
Sporting CP - Tondela
04/29/2026, 07:15 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
2.7
0.6
2:0
15%3:0
11%1:1
9%2:1
9%3:1
6%The Lab
- 1Sporting CP with Zeno Debast: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Tondela with Hugo Félix: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Sporting CP: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Sporting CP: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Sporting CP: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
73%
Draw
20%
Away Win
7%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
93%
Away or Draw
27%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- League Position: Sporting CP (3rd) is significantly stronger than Tondela (17th), who are in a relegation battle
- Offensive and Defensive Strength: Sporting CP's home offense (avg. 2.56 goals) meets Tondela's weak away defense (avg. 2.07 goals conceded)
- Mathematical Prediction: The pipeline analysis indicates a high home win probability of 73%
Risk Factors
- Short Recovery Time: Sporting CP had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Tondela's Away Weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
- Low Goal Threat from Tondela: The team registered an average of only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Sporting CP (3rd place, 72 points) host Tondela (17th place, 21 points) at the Estádio José Alvalade. This Liga Portugal match takes place on April 29, 2026, 8:15 PM. Sporting CP are fighting for top league positions, while Tondela are battling against relegation
Form
Sporting CP's form in the last five games across all competitions is LWDLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
The last match resulted in a draw
Tondela's form in the last five games across all competitions is DLDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
The team has suffered two consecutive losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sporting CP averages 2.50 goals scored per game and concedes 0.67 goals
In home games, they score 2.56 goals and concede 0.50 goals
The team kept 14 clean sheets
Tondela averages 0.70 goals scored per game and concedes 1.67 goals
In away games, they score 0.71 goals and concede 2.07 goals
The team kept 5 clean sheets
Matches at the Estádio José Alvalade recently averaged 3.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and 4 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
Sporting CP and Tondela have met in one direct encounter so far
Sporting CP won this match, while Tondela recorded no wins
Sporting CP scored a total of 3 goals, Tondela 0 goals
The last encounter took place on October 26, 2025, with Sporting CP winning 3-0 away
Key Players
For Sporting CP, Luis Suárez (24 goals, 4 assists), Pedro Gonçalv (13 goals, 6 assists), and Geny Catamo (6 goals, 3 assists) are key players
Luis Suárez shows a declining form trend, as do Pedro Gonçalv and Geny Catamo
For Tondela, Maranhão (6 goals, 1 assist), Rony Lopes (2 goals, 2 assists), and Yaya Sithole (1 goal, 0 assists) are crucial
Maranhão shows a declining form trend, while Rony Lopes and Yaya Sithole are stable
Not selected for Sporting CP are Francisco Trincão (6 goals/11 assists), Morten Hjulmand (2 goals/4 assists), and Gonçalo Inácio (1 goal/3 assists)
Not selected for Tondela are Joe Hodge (1 goal/1 assist) and Bebeto (2 goals/0 assists)
Goalkeepers
Sporting CP's goalkeeper, Rui Silva, has received an average rating of 6.93 in 28 season appearances
Sporting CP recorded 14 clean sheets this season
Tondela's goalkeeper, Bernardo, has received an average rating of 6.94 in 30 season appearances
Tondela recorded 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Sporting CP has a home advantage at Estádio José Alvalade, scoring an average of 2.56 goals and conceding 0.50 goals
The Estádio José Alvalade venue is known for an average of 3.6 goals per game
In the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored in 2 of 5 cases, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games