Liga Portugal
Nacional - Estoril
03/15/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.5
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
10%0:1
9%1:2
8%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
Nacional
Estoril
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
30%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis sees Estoril as slight favorites with a 38% win probability and 1.30 predicted goals
- Nacional is in a negative run of form, with 0 wins and 3 losses from their last 5 games
- Estoril is in 8th place (34 points) in the Liga Portugal, while Nacional is in 15th place (22 points), reflecting a significant performance difference this season
Risk Factors
- Liziero is missing for Nacional, impacting assists as only 58% of seasonal assists come from the active lineup
- Estoril concedes an average of 2.27 goals per away game, making their defense vulnerable
- The high draw probability of 31% according to the model suggests a potential sharing of points
Overview
Nacional (15th place, 22 points) host Estoril (8th place, 34 points) at Estádio da Madeira
Liga Portugal match on March 15, 2026, 4:30 PM
Nacional is fighting for league survival, while Estoril aims to consolidate its mid-table position
Form
Nacional has achieved 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from their last five games across all competitions (DLLLD)
Their last result was a draw
Estoril recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games (DLWLD)
Their last match also ended in a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Nacional's goal production is currently stagnating (0.5 goals), while the season average is 1.2 goals, indicating a negative form trend
Estoril's goal production is also stagnating (1.3 goals currently), compared to a season average of 1.9 goals, also a negative form trend
Statistics
Nacional scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals per game
At home, the average is 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
Estoril shows stronger offense with an average of 1.84 goals per game, while conceding 1.68 goals per game
Away from home, Estoril averages 1.82 goals scored and 2.27 goals conceded
At Estádio da Madeira, an average of 2.8 goals per game are scored
Both teams score in 40% of games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals are scored in 60% of games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional secured 1 win, Estoril 2 wins, and there were 2 draws
Nacional scored 4 goals and conceded 5 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on October 26, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Estoril has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez is a key goal scorer with 13 season goals, his rating is 7.2 and his form is declining
Paulinho Bóia contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 6.94 and stable form
Ze Vitor showed offensive strength with 4 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 6.92 and rising form
For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui is the top scorer with 17 goals and 1 assist, his rating is 7.12, but his form is declining
João Carvalho is an important playmaker with 6 goals and 10 assists and an average rating of 7.28, his form is declining
Jordan Holsgrove has 1 goal and 6 assists with a rating of 7.23 and stable form
Goalkeepers
Nacional's goalkeeper Kaique has played 19 games and has a season average rating of 6.93
He kept 4 clean sheets
Joel Robles of Estoril played in 25 matches, with an average rating of 6.68 and also 4 clean sheets
Influences
Nacional's home strength is evident with an average of 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per home game
Estoril scores an average of 1.82 away goals and concedes 2.27 away goals
Estádio da Madeira records an average of 2.8 goals per game
Both teams score in 40% of the matches at the stadium, and 60% of the games end with over 2.5 goals