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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Gil Vicente

03/21/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Gil Vicente
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

11%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
SCGV

Santa Clara

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.54
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.10
Vinícius Lopes on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Gil Vicente

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Santiago García González not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

31%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Gil Vicente holds a clear lead in the league table in 5th place compared to Santa Clara in 14th place
  • Gil Vicente shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.55 away goals compared to Santa Clara's 0.86 home goals
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Gil Vicente with 43% probability
Risk Factors
  • Santa Clara's offense generates an average of only 3.0 shots on target
  • The mathematical analysis shows a high probability for a draw of 31%
  • Santa Clara has achieved two wins and two draws in the last five games, including two consecutive wins
Overview

Santa Clara (14th place, 25 points) host Gil Vicente (5th place, 42 points) at Estádio de São Miguel

This Liga Portugal match is on March 21, 2026, 7:00 PM

Santa Clara battles against relegation, while Gil Vicente aims to solidify its position in the European qualification spots

Form

The form of both teams shows different tendencies

Santa Clara is unbeaten in four games with the form LDDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team achieved 2 wins and 2 draws, including two consecutive wins recently

Gil Vicente presents itself less stable with the form WLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games, including two consecutive draws recently

Statistics

Santa Clara scores an average of 0.86 home goals per game and concedes an average of 1.0 home goals

The team kept 5 clean sheets in home games

Gil Vicente is stronger offensively away from home with an average of 1.55 away goals, but concedes 1.36 goals per away game

The Estádio de São Miguel averages 2.6 goals per game

In 2 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 2 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters so far, there have been no draws

Santa Clara won 3 of these matches, while Gil Vicente won 2 times

The goal difference of 6:5 goals slightly favors Santa Clara

The last encounter on November 3, 2025, ended with a 0:1 away win for Gil Vicente

The historical record indicates a home dominance

Key Players

For Santa Clara, Serginho (4 goals, 2 assists), Gabriel Silva (4 goals), and Gustavo Klismahn (1 assist) are key players

Serginho shows a stable form trend

Gabriel Silva and Gustavo Klismahn are in action, with Klismahn showing a rising form trend

For Gil Vicente, Murilo de Souza Costa (7 goals, 4 assists), Luís André Leite Esteves (3 goals, 7 assists), and Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela (4 goals, 2 assists) stand out

Murilo de Souza Costa and Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela show a rising form trend

Luís André Leite Esteves is in stable form

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Gabriel Batista of Santa Clara recorded 7 clean sheets in 26 appearances

Lucão of Gil Vicente kept 5 clean sheets in 7 appearances

Influences

Santa Clara averages 0.86 goals scored at home and concedes 1.0 goals

Gil Vicente scores 1.55 goals away and concedes 1.36 goals

The Estádio de São Miguel has an average of 2.6 goals per game

At this venue, both teams scored in 40% of the games, and 40% of the games had over 2.5 goals

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