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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Arouca

03/21/2026, 03:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Moreirense
0.8
Total xG
1.7
Arouca
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

19%

0:1

15%

1:1

15%

1:0

12%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
MORARO

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.31x league average)
-1.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Alan de Souza Guimarães not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)
Rodrigo Alonso Martín on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
74% of goal output missing (only 20% available)

Arouca

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Alfonso Trezza not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists)
Naïs Djouahra not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Hyun-ju Lee not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Iván Barbero not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Taichi Fukui not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Espen van Ee not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
96% of goal output missing (only 8% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

37%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

54%

Under 1.5

46%

Over 2.5

25%

Under 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

10%

Under 3.5

90%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • Moreirense with only 21% of usual starting XI goal threat due to 6 key players missing
  • Arouca with only 9% of usual starting XI goal threat due to 6 key players missing
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 73% Double Chance (Draw or Away Win) for Arouca
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense shows a stagnant goal production of 0.8 goals per game in recent form
  • Arouca concedes an average of 2.50 goals per away game
  • The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 25% according to the model
Overview

Moreirense (8th place, 35 points) host Arouca (13th place, 26 points) at the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Liga Portugal match on March 21, 2026, 4:30 PM

Both teams are positioned in the mid-table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Moreirense's form in the last five league games is WLDDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

The team achieved 1 win and 2 draws in this period

According to the analysis, Moreirense's goal production is currently stagnant (0.8 goals), while the season average is 1.2 goals

Arouca's form in the last five league games is LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

They recorded 1 win during this time

Arouca scores consistently (an average of 1.4 goals per game)

Statistics

Moreirense scores an average of 1.19 goals per game and concedes 1.46 goals

They kept 7 clean sheets and there were 13 games where both teams scored

Arouca scores an average of 1.27 goals per game and concedes 2.12 goals

They kept 5 clean sheets and there were 14 games where both teams scored

At the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored

In 2 of 5 games, both teams scored, and 2 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense recorded 4 wins and Arouca 1 win

Moreirense scored a total of 7 goals, Arouca 2 goals

The last encounter on November 2, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Moreirense

Moreirense has been dominant in recent direct duels

Key Players

Travassos (Defender) of Moreirense scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season with an average rating of 6.87

His form is stable

José Fontán (Defender) of Arouca recorded 1 goal and 3 assists this season with a rating of 6.69

His form is declining

Goalkeepers

Moreirense's goalkeeper, André Ferreira, contributed to 7 clean sheets this season

Arouca's goalkeeper, Ignacio de Arruabarrena, contributed to 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Moreirense scored an average of 1.23 goals in home games and conceded 1.31 goals

Arouca conceded an average of 2.50 goals away and scored 1.25 goals

The pitch at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas is natural grass

The stadium records an average of 2.0 goals per game, with 2 of 5 games where both teams scored, and 2 of 5 games with over 2.5 goals

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