Liga Portugal
Alverca - Sporting CP
03/22/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.9
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Alverca
Sporting CP
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
27%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Sporting CP is favored with a 46% win probability according to pipeline analysis
- Sporting CP shows strong away form with 3 wins in the last 5 games, while Alverca recorded 5 consecutive draws
- Sporting CP has a superior offense (2.56 goals/game) and defense (0.56 goals conceded/game) compared to Alverca's stats (1.0 goals/game, 1.58 goals conceded/game)
Risk Factors
- Alverca averages only 3.4 shots on target, indicating low offensive efficiency
- Limited data availability for xG values in Sporting CP's recent away matches
Overview
Alverca (10th place, 29 points) hosts Sporting CP (3rd place, 62 points) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Liga Portugal match on March 22, 2026, 7:00 PM. Sporting CP is in the title race, while Alverca is in the mid-table. The mathematical analysis gives Sporting CP a 46% probability of winning.
Form
Alverca's form in their last five league matches is 'DDDDD', which means 0 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses. Their last match ended in a draw. Sporting CP, on the other hand, displayed a form of 'WWDLW' in their last five games, corresponding to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Sporting CP's last game ended in a win. Sporting CP recently showed strong attacking performance with a 5-0 home win and two 3-0 away wins.
Statistics
Alverca has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game and conceded 1.58 goals per game this season. Sporting CP, however, demonstrated a strong offense with an average of 2.56 goals per game and a solid defense conceding only 0.56 goals per game. Alverca kept 6 clean sheets, while Sporting CP had 13. At Alverca's home stadium, an average of 1.6 goals per game were scored. Both teams scored in 60% of the matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 20% of the matches. Alverca is currently scoring more frequently (1.3) than their season average (1.0). Sporting CP consistently scores (~2.5 goals per game).
Head-to-Head
In 1 head-to-head match, Alverca has 0 home wins, Sporting CP has 1 away win, and there have been no draws. Sporting CP scored 2 goals, while Alverca remained goalless. The last direct encounter on October 31, 2025, ended with a 0-2 away win for Sporting CP. Recent direct encounters show a dominance by the away team.
Key Players
For Alverca, key players include Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 4 assists, avg 7.09), Figueiredo (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.90), and Nabil Touaizi (1 goal, 3 assists, avg 6.74). For Sporting CP, Luis Suárez (23 goals, 4 assists, avg 7.63), Pedro Gonçalves (10 goals, 6 assists, avg 7.62), and Francisco Trincão (5 goals, 10 assists, avg 7.36) are prominent.
Goalkeepers
Alverca's goalkeeper, André Nogueira Gomes, has made 24 appearances this season. His counterpart for Sporting CP is Rui Silva, who has played in 23 games. Alverca has finished 6 games with a clean sheet this season, while Sporting CP has recorded 13 clean sheets.
Influences
The match takes place at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca on grass. Alverca scored an average of 1.0 goals at home and conceded 1.45 goals. Sporting CP scored an average of 2.55 goals away and conceded 0.91 goals. The stadium has seen an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 60% of cases.