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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - FC Augsburg

03/14/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
2.4
Total xG
3.6
FC Augsburg
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
BDFA

Borussia Dortmund

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+1.00
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.42
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap)
+0.08
Serhou Guirassy on the bench (12 goals, 2 assists)
Julian Brandt on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Ramy Bensebaini not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

FC Augsburg

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.36
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Mert Kömür on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Noahkai Banks on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

20%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 64% for Borussia Dortmund
  • Borussia Dortmund's home offense averages 2.15 goals scored and concedes only 0.85 goals
  • FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.18 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Borussia Dortmund's goal production is currently stagnating with 1.6 goals compared to the season average of 2.1 goals
  • The home team achieved an average of only 3.2 shots on target per game
Overview

Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 55 points) host FC Augsburg (9th place, 31 points) at Signal Iduna Park. Bundesliga match on March 14, 2026, 3:30 PM. BVB aims to solidify their position in the top group, while Augsburg wants to maintain distance from the relegation zone

Form

Borussia Dortmund's form across all competitions is WDLLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their last result was a Win (W). The form trend is negative, with goal production stagnating at 1.6 goals, compared to the season average of 2.1. FC Augsburg shows LWWWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their last result was a Loss (L). Their form trend is stable, with consistent ~1.3 goals per game

Statistics

Borussia Dortmund scored 2.12 goals and conceded 1.04 goals per game this season. At home, they score 2.15 goals while conceding only 0.85 goals. They kept 11 clean sheets. Augsburg averages 1.24 goals and 1.72 goals conceded. Away, they score 1.27 goals and concede a high 2.18 goals per game. They recorded 5 clean sheets. At Signal Iduna Park, an average of 3.6 goals per game are scored. In 2/5 games, both teams scored, and in 3/5, over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins each for Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg, and 1 draw. Dortmund scored 8 goals, Augsburg 5. The last encounter on October 31, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Borussia Dortmund. The recent record is even

Key Players

Dortmund's Maximilian Beier is important with 8 goals and 4 assists (Rating 6.88). Julian Ryerson (11 seasonal assists, 3 assists in the last 5 games, Rating 9.16) shows a rising form trend. Nico Schlotterbeck contributed 4 goals and 1 assist (Rating 7.38). Augsburg's Alexis Claude-Maurice (4 goals, 5 assists, Rating 7.11) is a key player. Fabian Rieder provided 3 goals and 3 assists. Rodrigo Ribeiro scored 2 goals in 5 appearances (Rating 7.01)

Goalkeepers

Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) kept 11 clean sheets. Finn Dahmen (FC Augsburg) recorded 5 clean sheets

Influences

Borussia Dortmund shows strong home performance with an average of 2.15 goals scored and only 0.85 goals conceded. At Signal Iduna Park, an average of 3.6 goals per game are scored. In 2/5 games, both teams scored, and in 3/5, over 2.5 goals were scored

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