Liga Portugal
Tondela - AVS
03/21/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
10%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Tondela
AVS
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline probability: Tondela has a higher win probability at 47%
- Home advantage: Tondela scores an average of 0.75 goals at home, and AVS concedes 2.83 goals away
- Form trend: Both teams show a positive offensive form trend according to the analysis
Risk Factors
- Home goals: Tondela only scores an average of 0.75 goals per home game
- Data availability: Only 1 head-to-head match available, limiting historical analysis
- Injury: AVS is without Player 529504 (Broken Leg)
Overview
Tondela (17th place, 19 points) host AVS (18th place, 10 points) at Estádio João Cardoso
This Liga Portugal match takes place on March 21, 2026, 9:30 PM
It is a basement clash where both teams will try to collect important points in the relegation battle
Form
Tondela's form in the last five Liga Portugal matches is DDWDL
This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
The pipeline analysis indicates a positive form trend for Tondela, as they are currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (0.8 goals)
AVS has a form of WLDDL in their last five matches
This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
AVS also shows a positive form trend according to the pipeline analysis, with currently 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 0.8 goals
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Tondela scores an average of 0.76 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals
At home, Tondela averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded
AVS scores an average of 0.69 goals per game and concedes 2.23 goals
Away, AVS averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 goals conceded
Both teams scored in 9 of Tondela's matches and in 10 of AVS's matches
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 13 of Tondela's matches and in 16 of AVS's matches
Head-to-Head
There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Tondela and AVS so far
This match ended in a 2:2 draw on November 2, 2025
The goal difference in direct encounters is balanced with 2 goals for Tondela and 2 goals for AVS
Historical dominance is thus even
Key Players
For Tondela, Maranhão is important with 6 season goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend
Makan Aïko has 1 season assist and a rising form trend
João Silva scored 1 season goal and also has a rising form trend
For AVS, Tomané is noteworthy with 2 season goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend
Pedro Lima Barros contributed 1 season goal and 2 assists
Óscar Perea scored 2 season goals
Not nominated for AVS are Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete (3G/0A) and Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola (1G/2A)
Goalkeepers
Tondela's goalkeeper, Bernardo, played in 25 season matches and kept 4 clean sheets
For AVS, Adriel played in 9 season matches and achieved 3 clean sheets
Influences
The match takes place at Estádio João Cardoso on grass
Tondela's home strength is evident with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per home game
AVS's away weakness is notable with an average of 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 goals conceded per away game
The stadium history shows an average of 1.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 of 5 games