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Liga Portugal

Tondela - AVS

03/21/2026, 08:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Tondela
1.5
Total xG
2.4
AVS
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
TONAVS

Tondela

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.4 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.17
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
+0.01
Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.8 goals/match)

AVS

Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+1.21
Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.35
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline probability: Tondela has a higher win probability at 47%
  • Home advantage: Tondela scores an average of 0.75 goals at home, and AVS concedes 2.83 goals away
  • Form trend: Both teams show a positive offensive form trend according to the analysis
Risk Factors
  • Home goals: Tondela only scores an average of 0.75 goals per home game
  • Data availability: Only 1 head-to-head match available, limiting historical analysis
  • Injury: AVS is without Player 529504 (Broken Leg)
Overview

Tondela (17th place, 19 points) host AVS (18th place, 10 points) at Estádio João Cardoso

This Liga Portugal match takes place on March 21, 2026, 9:30 PM

It is a basement clash where both teams will try to collect important points in the relegation battle

Form

Tondela's form in the last five Liga Portugal matches is DDWDL

This corresponds to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

The pipeline analysis indicates a positive form trend for Tondela, as they are currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (0.8 goals)

AVS has a form of WLDDL in their last five matches

This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

AVS also shows a positive form trend according to the pipeline analysis, with currently 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 0.8 goals

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Tondela scores an average of 0.76 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals

At home, Tondela averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded

AVS scores an average of 0.69 goals per game and concedes 2.23 goals

Away, AVS averages 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 9 of Tondela's matches and in 10 of AVS's matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 13 of Tondela's matches and in 16 of AVS's matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Tondela and AVS so far

This match ended in a 2:2 draw on November 2, 2025

The goal difference in direct encounters is balanced with 2 goals for Tondela and 2 goals for AVS

Historical dominance is thus even

Key Players

For Tondela, Maranhão is important with 6 season goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend

Makan Aïko has 1 season assist and a rising form trend

João Silva scored 1 season goal and also has a rising form trend

For AVS, Tomané is noteworthy with 2 season goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend

Pedro Lima Barros contributed 1 season goal and 2 assists

Óscar Perea scored 2 season goals

Not nominated for AVS are Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete (3G/0A) and Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola (1G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Tondela's goalkeeper, Bernardo, played in 25 season matches and kept 4 clean sheets

For AVS, Adriel played in 9 season matches and achieved 3 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place at Estádio João Cardoso on grass

Tondela's home strength is evident with an average of 0.75 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per home game

AVS's away weakness is notable with an average of 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 goals conceded per away game

The stadium history shows an average of 1.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 of 5 games

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