🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Estoril - Rio Ave

03/22/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Estoril
1.6
Total xG
2.2
Rio Ave
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

0:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ESTRA

Estoril

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.26
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Alejandro Marqués on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)

Rio Ave

Attack weakness (0.34x league average)
-0.77
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.05
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

28%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Estoril has a 58% win probability
  • Home strength vs. Away weakness: Estoril's home offense (Avg. 1.86 goals) meets Rio Ave's weak away defense (Avg. 1.85 goals conceded)
  • Head-to-head record: Estoril dominated the last 5 encounters with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risk Factors
  • Estoril's goal production is currently faltering (Avg. 1.0 goals), while the season average is Avg. 1.9 goals
  • Rio Ave scores consistently (Avg. 1.0 goals per game), according to Advanced Stats
  • K. Boma (Estoril) is injured (Muscle Injury), B. Aguilera Zamora (Rio Ave) is injured (Cruciate Ligament Tear)
Overview

Estoril (7th place, 37 points) host Rio Ave (14th place, 27 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. The Liga Portugal match takes place on March 22, 2026, 4:30 PM. Estoril aims to solidify its position in the upper mid-table, while Rio Ave fights against relegation.

Form

Estoril's Liga Portugal form is LWLDW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last appearance was a 1-0 away win against Nacional

Rio Ave shows a form of LLDWW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last game ended in a 2-1 home win against Estrela Amadora

Estoril's goal production is faltering (Avg. 1.0 goals recently), while their season average is Avg. 1.9 goals

Statistics

Estoril scores an average of 1.81 goals per game and concedes 1.62 goals

At home, these values improve to Avg. 1.86 goals scored and Avg. 1.21 goals conceded

Rio Ave scores an average of 1.0 goals per game and concedes 1.73 goals

Away, the average is Avg. 1.0 goals scored and Avg. 1.85 goals conceded

Historically, games at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota average 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril dominated with 3 wins, while Rio Ave remained winless with 2 draws

Estoril scored a total of 11 goals, Rio Ave 4 goals in these encounters

The last meeting saw Estoril win 4-0 on November 1, 2025

Key Players

Yanis Begraoui, Estoril's attacker, scored 17 season goals and 1 assist, but shows a declining form trend

João Carvalho, Estoril's midfielder, contributed 6 goals and 11 assists, with stable form

Jalen Blesa, Rio Ave's attacker, scored 4 times, his form is stable

Andreas Ntoi, Rio Ave's defender, provided 2 assists and shows a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Estoril's goalkeeper Joel Robles recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Ennio Van Der Gouw, Rio Ave's goalkeeper, achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

Estoril shows a clear home advantage with Avg. 1.86 goals scored and Avg. 1.21 goals conceded in home games

Rio Ave concedes Avg. 1.85 goals away, which weakens their defense

The Estádio António Coimbra da Mota is known for high-scoring encounters with an average of 3.8 goals per game

80% of matches at this stadium saw both teams score

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.