Liga Portugal
Famalicão - Nacional
03/21/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.3
0.6
1:0
16%2:0
15%0:0
11%1:1
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Famalicão
Nacional
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
26%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
37%
No
63%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 64% home win probability for Famalicão with 1.70 expected goals
- Famalicão is in strong form with two consecutive wins, while Nacional has a negative run of four losses in five games
- Nacional's offense is critically weakened, with only 66% of their usual starting XI strength available, including absences like Jesús Ramírez (13G/0A) and Liziero (0G/4A)
Risk Factors
- Famalicão's goal production is currently stagnating (1.3), while the season average is 1.4
- Nacional's goal production is currently stagnating (0.4), while the season average is 1.2
Overview
Famalicão (6th place, 42 points) host Nacional (16th place, 22 points) at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Liga Portugal match on March 21, 2026, 4:30 PM
Famalicão aim to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table, while Nacional fight for league survival
Form
Famalicão's current form across all competitions is LWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In their last five matches, Famalicão recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
They recently secured two consecutive wins
Nacional, however, shows poor form with LLLDL across all competitions
This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last five games, with a loss in their most recent match
Statistics
Famalicão average 1.23 goals per game and concede an average of 0.85 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.22 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded
Nacional average 1.12 goals per game and concede an average of 1.46 goals
Away from home, Nacional score 1.09 goals and concede 1.55 goals per match
Matches at this stadium average 3.0 total goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the 5 direct head-to-head matches, the record is balanced with 2 wins each for Famalicão and Nacional, and 1 draw
Famalicão scored a total of 6 goals, while Nacional managed 4 goals
The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Famalicão
Key Players
For Famalicão, Gil Dias with 3 goals and 6 assists, and Sorriso with 4 goals and 4 assists, are key attacking players
Gustavo Sá also contributes to goal threat with 4 goals and 1 assist
For Nacional, Paulinho Bóia with 3 goals and 2 assists, and Ze Vitor with 4 goals and 1 assist, are noteworthy
Léo Santos has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Famalicão's goalkeeper Lazar Carević has made 26 season appearances
Nacional rely on Kaique, who has played in 20 matches
Famalicão achieved 13 clean sheets this season, while Nacional recorded 4 clean sheets
Influences
Famalicão demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding only 0.5 goals per game
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho sees an average of 3.0 goals per match
Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches