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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Casa Pia

03/20/2026, 08:15 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Estrela Amadora
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Casa Pia
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

8%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
EACP

Estrela Amadora

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Jefferson Encada not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Casa Pia

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-0.28
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Korede Osundina on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Home Win Probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a 41% chance for Estrela Amadora
  • Form trend: Estrela Amadora's goal production is stalling (recent 1.0, season average 1.3)
  • Opponent form: Casa Pia is currently scoring more often (recent 1.3, season average 1.2)
Risk Factors
  • Casa Pia with 2.4 shots on target per game (few shots on target)
  • Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.20 goals conceded per away game
Overview

Estrela Amadora (14th place, 25 points) host Casa Pia (15th place, 24 points) at Estádio José Gomes. Liga Portugal match on March 20, 2026, 09:15 PM. Both teams are battling in the lower mid-table for crucial points to secure their position.

Form

Estrela Amadora's form across all competitions: LLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 0 Wins, 2 Draws, and 3 Losses

Casa Pia's form across all competitions: DWLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 1 Win, 3 Draws, and 1 Loss

Statistics

Estrela Amadora scored an average of 1.12 goal per game, while Casa Pia averaged 1.04 goal per game

Estrela Amadora conceded an average of 1.73 goal conceded per game, while Casa Pia conceded 1.76 goal conceded per game

Estrela Amadora kept 6 clean sheets, Casa Pia kept 5 clean sheets

At Estádio José Gomes, there was an average of 3.6 goals/game

Statistics at Estádio José Gomes show 2/5 for Both teams scored, and 3/5 goals over 2.5

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches:

Estrela Amadora won 3 times, Casa Pia won 2 times

There were 0 Draws

The last encounter on November 01, 2025, 07:00 PM ended 5:3 in favor of home

Estrela Amadora scored a total of 9 Goals, while Casa Pia scored 6 Goals

Key Players

Estrela Amadora:

Jovane Cabral (Attacker): 5 Goals, 0 Assists, Avg. rating 7.13

Abraham Marcus (Attacker): 4 Goals, 3 Assists, Avg. rating 7.00

Paulo Moreira (Midfielder): 3 Goals, 2 Assists, Avg. rating 6.63

Casa Pia:

Jérémy Livolant (Attacker): 3 Goals, 7 Assists, Avg. rating 7.08

Gaizka Larrazabal (Defender): 3 Goals, 4 Assists, Avg. rating 6.78

Cassiano (Attacker): 5 Goals, 0 Assists, Avg. rating 6.66

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Renan Ribeiro (Estrela Amadora) with avg. rating 6.79 and 6 clean sheets

Goalkeeper Patrick Sequeira (Casa Pia) with avg. rating 6.66 and 5 clean sheets

Influences

Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.14 goals per home game and concedes 1.50 goals conceded per home game

Casa Pia scores 1.00 goals per away game and concedes 2.20 goals conceded per away game

The Stadium (Estádio José Gomes) statistics show: 3.6 Tore/Spiel, 2/5 BTTS, 3/5 Over 2.5

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