Liga Portugal
Porto - Famalicão
04/04/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.2
0.7
1:0
15%1:1
13%0:0
12%2:0
12%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Porto
Famalicão
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
29%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 54% for Porto, supported by their strong home record with an average of 1.93 goals scored and only 0.29 goals conceded
- Porto has a dominant record in head-to-head matches against Famalicão with 3 wins and 2 draws out of 5 games
- Famalicão concedes an average of 1.62 goals per away game, highlighting their defensive vulnerability away from home
Risk Factors
- Information on duels won in the last 5 matches is not available due to limited data
Overview
Porto (1st place, 72 points) hosts Famalicão (6th place, 45 points) at the Estádio Do Dragão. This Liga Portugal match takes place on April 4, 2026, 8:30 PM. Porto enters the game as a clear favorite and aims to consolidate its league lead.
Form
Porto is in strong form with a record of DWWWW from their last five matches, consisting of 4 wins and 1 draw. Porto won their last game. Famalicão also shows an impressive form of WDWWW, with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five outings. The team has won its last three matches. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Porto averages 1.93 home goals per game and concedes only 0.29 goals in their home stadium. Famalicão scores an average of 1.25 goals away but concedes 1.62 goals. At the Estádio Do Dragão, an average of 2.4 goals were scored in the last 5 matches. In 40% of these games, both teams scored, and also 40% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto dominates with 3 wins compared to 0 for Famalicão, with 2 draws. Porto scored 9 goals during this period, while Famalicão managed 4. The last encounter on November 9, 2025, ended with a 1-0 victory for Porto.
Key Players
For Porto, Victor Froholdt shows rising form with 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.32. Oskar Pietuszewski scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 5 appearances with stable form. Alberto Costa, a defender, was important for the team with 6 assists in 22 season appearances. For Famalicão, Gil Dias impressed in the last 5 games with 2 assists and rising form with a rating of 7.38. Sorriso recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Justin de Haas, a defender, scored 1 goal in his last 5 appearances and showed stable form.
Goalkeepers
Diogo Costa, Porto's goalkeeper, has achieved 18 clean sheets this season. His form is rising with an average rating of 7.34 in the last 5 games. Lazar Carević, Famalicão's goalkeeper, recorded 14 clean sheets this season. His form is also rising, with a rating of 7.52 in the last 5 matches.
Influences
Porto shows a strong home advantage, averaging 1.93 home goals scored and only 0.29 home goals conceded per game. The Estádio Do Dragão records an average of 2.4 goals per game, with a BTTS rate of 40% and an Over 2.5 rate of 40% in the last five matches. Famalicão concedes an average of 1.62 goals away from home.