Liga Portugal
Nacional - Estrela Amadora
04/04/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Nacional
Estrela Amadora
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
32%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a home win for Nacional with a 39% probability
- Away team's form trend: Estrela Amadora is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.4)
- Squad impact: For Estrela Amadora, only 78% of the usual starting XI strength is available, without Jovane Cabral (5G/0A) and Paulo Moreira (3G/2A)
Risk Factors
- Nacional's goal production is stagnant (0.4), with a season average of 1.1
- Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.18 goals per away game
- Nacional has recorded 4 losses and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
Overview
Nacional (16th place, 22 points) hosts Estrela Amadora (14th place, 28 points) at EstĂĄdio da Madeira
Liga Portugal match on April 4, 2026, 3:30 PM
Both teams are in the lower half of the table
Nacional is fighting against relegation, while Estrela Amadora aims to increase the gap
Form
Nacional shows a form of LLDLL in the last five matches
The team recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
Recent results include losses against FamalicĂŁo (0-1) and Estoril (0-1)
Estrela Amadora has a form of LDDLW in their last five games
This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Estrela Amadora won their last match 4-0 against Casa Pia
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Nacional scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.44 goals per game
At home, the average is 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded
Estrela Amadora averages 1.22 goals and 1.67 goals conceded per game
Away, Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.18 goals per match
Nacional kept 4 clean sheets, while Estrela Amadora had 7 clean sheets
At EstĂĄdio da Madeira, the last 5 matches averaged 1.8 total goals
In 1 of 5 matches, both teams scored, and 2 of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Nacional has not yet achieved a victory against Estrela Amadora
Estrela Amadora won 2 matches, 1 game ended in a draw
Nacional scored 1 goal, while Estrela Amadora scored 4 goals
The last encounter on November 9, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw
Estrela Amadora has dominated recent meetings
Key Players
For Nacional, JesĂșs RamĂrez is an important attacker with 13 seasonal goals
Paulinho BĂłia has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season and shows stable form
Liziero is a key midfielder with 4 assists and stable form
For Estrela Amadora, Abraham Marcus stands out with 5 goals and 5 assists and shows rising form
Rodrigo Pinho has scored 4 seasonal goals and also shows a strongly rising form
Bernardo Schappo is a defender with rising form and an average rating of 7.19 in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Nacional's goalkeeper, Kaique, had 21 appearances and 4 clean sheets this season
Renan Ribeiro, Estrela Amadora's goalkeeper, made 27 appearances and recorded 7 clean sheets
Kaique has shown a slightly declining rating in the last 5 games, while Renan Ribeiro has a stable rating
Influences
The home team Nacional averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded at home
The away team Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.18 goals away
The grass pitch at EstĂĄdio da Madeira is the usual surface
In the last 5 matches at EstĂĄdio da Madeira, an average of 1.8 goals were scored per game