Liga Portugal
Sporting CP - Santa Clara
04/03/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.2
0.7
1:0
15%1:1
13%0:0
13%2:0
13%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
29%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Key Factors
- Sporting CP's impressive home offense (2.57 goals per home game) meets Santa Clara's weaker away defense (1.42 goals conceded per away game)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 55% probability and 1.50 expected goals for Sporting CP
- Santa Clara shows low offensive efficiency in their last 5 games with an average of only 3.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Sporting CP plays with a reduced starting lineup strength, with only 68% of the usual goal threat available due to 4 key players missing
- Santa Clara is unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) and shows a rising form trend
- Santa Clara has previously won at Estádio José Alvalade (2024-11-30)
Overview
Sporting CP (2nd place, 65 points) host Santa Clara (13th place, 28 points) at Estádio José Alvalade
Liga Portugal match on April 3, 2026, 8:30 PM
Sporting CP are battling at the top of the table, while Santa Clara need points for survival
Form
Sporting CP's form is WDLWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Their last match was a win
Santa Clara's form is DDWWW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
The team has won its last three matches
Sporting CP scored an average of 2.8 goals in their last 5 games, which is above their season average of 2.5
Santa Clara scored an average of 1.4 goals in their last 5 games, also above their season average of 1.1
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sporting CP averages 2.62 goals scored per game and concedes 0.58 goals
At home, they score 2.57 goals and concede 0.29 goals per game
Santa Clara averages 0.89 goals scored per game and concedes 1.15 goals
Away, they score 0.92 goals and concede 1.42 goals per game
Sporting CP kept 13 clean sheets in total, with 9 at home
Santa Clara achieved 8 clean sheets, with 2 away from home
At Estádio José Alvalade, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Sporting CP secured 2 wins, Santa Clara 1 win, and there were no draws
Sporting CP scored a total of 3 goals, Santa Clara 2 goals
Sporting CP won the last encounter away on November 8, 2025, with a score of 2:1
Sporting CP is considered the dominant team in recent direct matchups
Key Players
Pedro Gonçalves of Sporting CP scored 12 goals and 6 assists with a season rating of 7.66
Francisco Trincão (Sporting CP) contributed 5 goals and 10 assists with a rating of 7.35
Geny Catamo (Sporting CP) has 6 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.07
Serginho of Santa Clara scored 4 goals and 2 assists with a season rating of 6.98
Gabriel Silva (Santa Clara) scored 4 times and has a rating of 6.89, his form is rising
Welinton Torrão (Santa Clara) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, his rating is 6.67
Goalkeepers
Rui Silva of Sporting CP has kept 13 clean sheets in 24 appearances this season, 9 of which were at home
Gabriel Batista of Santa Clara kept 8 clean sheets in 27 appearances, with 2 coming in away games
Influences
Sporting CP benefits from a strong home advantage, as the team averages 2.57 goals scored and concedes only 0.29 goals per home game at Estádio José Alvalade
The stadium's statistics show an average of 3.0 goals per game
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches at Estádio José Alvalade