Liga Portugal
Arouca - Estoril
04/06/2026, 05:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Arouca
Estoril
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Estoril is the slight favorite with a 42% win probability compared to Arouca (30%)
- Offensive Strength: Estoril scores significantly more goals on average (1.78) than Arouca (1.26) this season
- Home Defensive Weakness: Arouca concedes an average of 1.79 goals per home game
Risk Factors
- Estoril averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating lower efficiency
- Estoril concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Limited data availability for total duels for both teams in the last 5 games
Overview
Arouca (12th place, 29 points) host Estoril (7th place, 37 points) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Liga Portugal match on April 6, 2026, 6:45 PM
Estoril are favorites in this encounter and look to consolidate their upper mid-table position
Arouca need points to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Arouca's form in their last five Liga Portugal matches is WLLLW
The team recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in this period
Their last outing was a 1-0 away win against Moreirense
Estoril's form in their last five Liga Portugal matches is WLDWL
This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their most recent match was a 1-2 home loss against Rio Ave
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Arouca averages 1.26 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 2.04 goals
In home games, Arouca scores 1.29 goals and concedes 1.79 goals on average
Estoril is stronger offensively with an average of 1.78 goals per game, conceding 1.63 goals
Away from home, Estoril scores 1.75 goals and concedes an average of 2.08 goals
The Estádio Municipal de Arouca sees an average of 3.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches at this stadium
All 5 matches at the stadium had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head Liga Portugal matches, the record between Arouca and Estoril is balanced
Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 1 match ending in a draw
Arouca scored 11 goals, while Estoril found the net 13 times
The last encounter on November 7, 2025, saw Estoril win 4-3 away
Key Players
For Arouca, Naïs Djouahra stands out as an attacker with 6 goals and 2 assists
Iván Barbero contributes to the offense with 6 goals and 1 assist
Hyun-ju Lee in midfield has scored 5 goals and 3 assists
At Estoril, Yanis Begraoui is the top scorer with 17 goals and 1 assist
João Carvalho shines in midfield with 6 goals and 11 assists
Jordan Holsgrove is another important midfielder with 1 goal and 7 assists
Goalkeepers
Arouca's goalkeeper, Ignacio de Arruabarrena, has an average rating of 6.88 this season
Arouca's team has recorded 6 clean sheets
Joel Robles guards the goal for Estoril with an average rating of 6.73 this season
Estoril's team has achieved 5 clean sheets
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at Estádio Municipal de Arouca
The venue shows a high goal average, with 3.6 goals per game on average
Both teams scored in 80% of matches at this stadium, and 100% ended with over 2.5 goals
Arouca's home performance shows 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded on average