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Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli

03/13/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.5
Total xG
2.6
St. Pauli
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BMSP

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.35
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Franck Honorat on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Rocco Reitz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

St. Pauli

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.56
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.01
Manolis Saliakas not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Martijn Kaars on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • St. Pauli's positive form trend is on the rise (1.3 goals recently vs. 1.1 season average), while Gladbach's goal production is stagnant (0.8 goals recently vs. 1.3 season average)
  • The pipeline analysis favors Borussia Mönchengladbach with a home win probability of 46%
  • St. Pauli concedes an average of 2.00 goals away from home, indicating vulnerability on the road
Risk Factors
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach's goal production is currently stagnating (0.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.3 goals)
  • St. Pauli employs a counter-attacking approach with an average of 34% possession and 3.4 shots on target per game
Overview

Borussia Mönchengladbach (12th place, 25 points) host St. Pauli (16th place, 24 points) at Stadion im Borussia-Park

The Bundesliga match takes place on March 13, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams are involved in a relegation battle, with St. Pauli in a playoff spot

Form

Borussia Mönchengladbach's form across all competitions shows DLLWL

The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games

Their most recent result was a loss

St. Pauli's form across all competitions is WLWWD

The visitors achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches

St. Pauli's most recent game was a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Borussia Mönchengladbach scored an average of 1.12 goals and conceded 1.72 goals per game this season

At home, Gladbach scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 1.75 goals

St. Pauli scored an average of 0.92 goals and conceded 1.6 goals per game this season

Away from home, St. Pauli conceded an average of 2.00 goals and scored 0.91 goals

At Stadion im Borussia-Park, the last 5 games saw an average of 2.8 total goals

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and 3 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, the record is balanced with 2 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 2 wins for St. Pauli, and 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 9:6 in favor of Gladbach

The last meeting saw Borussia Mönchengladbach win clearly with a 4:0 score on November 1, 2025

Key Players

For Borussia Mönchengladbach, Haris Tabakovic is the top scorer with 11 season goals and 2 assists

Kevin Diks contributed 4 goals

Yannik Engelhardt showed rising form in the last 5 games with 1 goal

Not nominated: Franck Honorat (0G/5A), Rocco Reitz (0G/2A)

For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani is an important attacking player with 4 goals and 3 assists and showed rising form in the last 5 games

Joel Chima Fujita provided 1 goal and 3 assists

Eric Smith scored 2 goals and 2 assists

Not nominated: Manolis Saliakas (1G/3A), Martijn Kaars (3G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Borussia Mönchengladbach's goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas kept 9 clean sheets this season

Nikola Vasilj of St. Pauli recorded 5 clean sheets

Influences

Borussia Mönchengladbach scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 1.75 goals at home

St. Pauli conceded an average of 2.00 goals when playing away

Stadion im Borussia-Park has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

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