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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - Alverca

04/04/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Alverca
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
RAALV

Rio Ave

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.33
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Full strength squad available

Alverca

Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.01
Marko Milovanović on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with an away win probability of 35% for Alverca versus 35% for Rio Ave
  • Rio Ave is in strong recent form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games
  • Alverca is missing a key player: Marko Milovanović. This means only 82% of the usual goal production is available
Risk Factors
  • Alverca has conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five away matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • The head-to-head record between the two teams consists of only one draw, which makes it difficult to assess historical patterns
Overview

Rio Ave (10th place, 30 points) host Alverca (11th place, 29 points) at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 4, 2026, 6:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table and aim to move away from the relegation zone

Form

Rio Ave shows good form with a W-W-W-D-L record in their last five games. This accounts for 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last match was a win. Alverca, on the other hand, has a L-D-D-D-D record in their last five games, meaning 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. Their last game resulted in a loss

Statistics

Rio Ave averages 1.04 goals scored per game and concedes 1.7 goals per game this season. Alverca averages 1.0 goals scored per game and concedes 1.67 goals per game. At home, Rio Ave averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded. Away, Alverca averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. The last five games at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube saw an average of 2.2 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Rio Ave and Alverca so far. This single encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on November 8, 2025. Both teams scored 1 goal in that match

Key Players

For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa is a key player with 5 season goals and an average rating of 7.08. Dario Spikic has scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists this season. Marios Vrousai shows a solid performance with a season average rating of 7.04. For Alverca, Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos stands out with 2 goals and 4 assists and an average rating of 7.09. Figueiredo contributed 3 goals and 1 assist. Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira scored 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Rio Ave's goalkeeper Ennio Van Der Gouw made 7 season appearances and achieved an average rating of 6.76. His team kept 4 clean sheets. For Alverca, Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira appeared in 2 season games and achieved an average rating of 7.04. His team kept 6 clean sheets

Influences

The match takes place on grass at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. Rio Ave scores an average of 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.62 goals per game. The home venue shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

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