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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Sporting Braga

04/04/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Moreirense
0.7
Total xG
2.3
Sporting Braga
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

14%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

0:0

12%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
MORSB

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.37x league average)
-1.15
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.24

Sporting Braga

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.47
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Rodrigo Zalazar not in squad (15 goals, 4 assists)
Diego Rodrigues on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Florian Grillitsch on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

16%

Draw

29%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

84%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 55% probability for an away win for Sporting Braga, compared to only 16% for Moreirense
  • Current Form: Moreirense is in a negative form phase with no wins in their last five games (LDDLL). Goal production has stalled (0.4 goals recently)
  • Head-to-Head Record: Sporting Braga has won all 5 direct encounters against Moreirense, dominating recent matchups
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating low offensive penetration
  • Moreirense's goal production has stalled (0.4), while the season average is 1.2
  • Sporting Braga's goal production has stalled (1.8), while the season average is 2.1
Overview

Moreirense (9th place, 35 points) host Sporting Braga (4th place, 46 points) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Liga Portugal match on April 4, 2026, 6:00 PM. Moreirense aim to climb the mid-table, while Sporting Braga look to consolidate their position in the top half

Form

Moreirense shows poor form with LDDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Their last game was a 0-1 home loss against Arouca. Sporting Braga's form is mixed with WDLWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). They recently lost 1-2 at home against Porto

Statistics

Moreirense averages 1.15 goals scored per game and concedes 1.44 goals. At home, they score 1.14 and concede 1.29 goals per game, with 3 home clean sheets. Sporting Braga is offensively stronger, averaging 2.04 goals per game and conceding 1.04 goals. Away from home, they score 2.08 goals and concede 1.17 goals per match, with 4 away clean sheets. The venue has an average of 2.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting Braga secured 5 wins, and Moreirense had 0 wins. All 5 games ended without a draw. Sporting Braga scored 11 goals and Moreirense 5 goals. The last encounter was won by Sporting Braga away with a 2-1 score on November 9, 2025. Sporting Braga dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Moreirense, Alan de Souza GuimarĂŁes (Midfielder, 3 goals, 5 assists), Travassos (Defender, 4 goals, 3 assists), and JĂłbson de Brito Gonzaga (Defender, 3 goals) are key players. For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta (Attacker, 13 goals, 4 assists), Pau VĂ­ctor (Attacker, 6 goals, 4 assists), and Gabri MartĂ­nez (Attacker, 2 goals in last 5 games, 3 season assists) stand out

Goalkeepers

In goal for Moreirense is André Ferreira, who kept 7 clean sheets this season. For Sporting Braga, Lukas Hornicek is the goalkeeper, achieving 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The home advantage for Moreirense is indicated by an average of 1.14 home goals scored and 1.29 home goals conceded. Sporting Braga, however, is strong away from home with 2.08 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game. The venue records an average of 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 40% of matches

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