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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - AVS

04/03/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.5
Total xG
2.3
AVS
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GVAVS

Gil Vicente

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

AVS

Attack weakness (0.63x league average)
-0.51
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

29%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Predicted Home Win: The mathematical analysis indicates a 54% probability for a Gil Vicente home win
  • Gil Vicente's Home Strength vs AVS's Away Weakness: Gil Vicente averages 1.47 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded at home, whereas AVS only scores 0.67 goals and concedes 2.83 goals away
  • Tactical Differences: Gil Vicente averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to AVS's 1.8
Risk Factors
  • Low Offensive Threat from AVS: AVS averaged 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • AVS's Away Defensive Weakness: AVS concedes an average of 2.83 goals per away game
  • Injuries at AVS: G. Molina Gutiérrez (Broken Fibula) and A. Baroan (Broken Leg) are out
Overview

Gil Vicente (6th place, 42 points) hosts AVS (18th place, 11 points) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 3, 2026, 4:30 PM. Gil Vicente aims to consolidate its mid-table position, while AVS at the bottom of the table fights for crucial points

Form

Gil Vicente is currently in a form crisis, having recorded no wins in their last five matches (LLDDL). The team suffered three losses and drew twice. Their last game ended in a 0-1 defeat against Santa Clara. AVS also shows poor form with (LDDLD) in their last five outings, with three draws and two losses. In their last match, AVS achieved a 0-0 draw against Tondela. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Gil Vicente has averaged 1.44 goals scored per game and conceded 1.04 goals per game this season. At home, they are stronger with an average of 1.47 goals scored and only 0.8 goals conceded per game. They kept 10 clean sheets. AVS shows a significantly weaker record, with an average of 0.67 goals scored and 2.15 goals conceded per game. Away from home, their defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding 2.83 goals per game while scoring only 0.67 goals. AVS has kept 4 clean sheets this season. At Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, an average of 3.6 goals were scored in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 games (80%) and over 2.5 goals in all 5 games (100%)

Head-to-Head

In three direct encounters between the two teams, the record is even. Gil Vicente and AVS have each secured one win, while one match ended in a draw. Gil Vicente scored a total of 5 goals, AVS 4 goals. The last meeting on November 9, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

For Gil Vicente, Santiago García González is an important player with 6 goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 7.14, showing a rising form trend. Murilo de Souza Costa contributed with 7 goals and 4 assists and an average rating of 6.96. Luís André Leite Esteves is a key midfielder with 3 goals, 7 assists, and an average rating of 7.23. For AVS, Tomané stands out with 2 goals and 1 assist (average rating 6.87), Pedro Lima Barros with 1 goal and 2 assists (average rating 6.72), and Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola with 1 goal and 2 assists (average rating 6.56)

Goalkeepers

Gil Vicente's goalkeeper is Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira. The team has recorded 10 clean sheets this season. For AVS, Adriel is in goal, and his team has kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos is known for high-scoring encounters, with an average of 3.6 goals per game, an 80% BTTS rate, and a 100% Over 2.5 rate in the last five matches. Gil Vicente scores an average of 1.47 goals at home and concedes only 0.8 goals, signaling a home advantage. AVS, on the other hand, shows weaknesses away from home, with an average of only 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 goals conceded

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