Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães - Tondela
04/03/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Vitória Guimarães
Tondela
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
31%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Form contrast: Vitória Guimarães' goal production is faltering with 0.8 compared to a season average of 1.2, while Tondela is currently scoring more frequently (1.3 versus 0.8)
- Home strength vs. Away weakness: Vitória's home defense is relatively solid with 1.0 goals conceded, while Tondela struggles offensively away (0.71 goals) and defensively (1.57 goals conceded)
- Mathematical prediction: The model predicts a 39% win probability for Vitória, indicating a slight favorite role, but also a 31% draw potential
Overview
Vitória Guimarães (9th place, 32 points) host Tondela (17th place, 20 points) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 3, 2026, 6:00 PM
Vitória aims to improve its league position, while Tondela fights against relegation
Form
Vitória Guimarães shows poor form with LDLLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) in their last five matches
The team lost 0-3 against Benfica, 1-2 against Famalicão, and 0-2 against Santa Clara
This was preceded by a 1-1 draw against Alverca and a 2-3 loss against Sporting Braga
Tondela, on the other hand, shows more stable form with DWDLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
Their recent results include a 0-0 draw against AVS, a 0-1 loss against Rio Ave, and a 2-2 draw against Santa Clara
A 2-0 win against Estrela Amadora and a 1-1 draw against Alverca complete their last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals
At home, the values are 1.06 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per home game
Tondela scores an average of 0.73 goals per game and concedes 1.50 goals
Away from home, Tondela scores 0.71 goals and concedes 1.57 goals per away game
At Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, an average of 2.0 goals were scored per match in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games (60% BTTS), and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 games (40% Over 2.5)
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams in total
Tondela won 1 time, and Vitória Guimarães won 0 times, with 0 draws
The goal difference is 1:0 in favor of Tondela
The last encounter was won by Tondela on November 8, 2025, with a score of 1:0
Key Players
For Vitória Guimarães, Samu is crucial with 5 season goals and 2 assists (2 goals in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.84)
Óscar Rivas, a defender, scored 1 season goal and showed rising form in the last 5 games with 1 goal and a rating of 7.02
Forward Gustavo Silva contributed 2 season goals and 1 assist, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a rating of 6.76
For Tondela, Maranhão is a key player with 6 season goals and 1 assist (1 goal in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.0)
Defender Bebeto showed rising form with 2 season goals, including 2 in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.78
Joe Hodge in midfield has 1 season assist and 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 6.73, also with rising form
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper for Vitória Guimarães is Charles, who appeared in 12 games
Vitória Guimarães' team kept 7 clean sheets this season
The goalkeeper for Tondela is Bernardo, who appeared in 26 games
Tondela's team kept 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
The grass pitch at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques is the usual playing surface
Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals
Tondela scores an average of 0.71 goals away and concedes 1.57 goals
The stadium has a history of averaging 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of the last 5 games at this stadium