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Liga Portugal

AVS - Vitória Guimarães

04/11/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
AVS
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Vitória Guimarães
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

13%

0:2

9%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
AVSVG

AVS

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.77
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0 vs 0.7 season average)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.7 goals/match)

Vitória Guimarães

Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Noah Jose Saviolo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Rodrigo Abascal not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Diogo Sousa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

32%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Offensive Strength: Vitória Guimarães averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to AVS's 2.4
  • Poor Season Performance: AVS is at the bottom of the league, scoring only 0.64 goals per game on average while conceding 2.18
  • Head-to-Head: Vitória Guimarães dominated recent encounters, including a 4-0 victory in the last match
Risk Factors
  • AVS scored an average of only 0.62 goals per home game
  • Vitória Guimarães conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • AVS averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

AVS (18th place, 11 points) host Vitória Guimarães (9th place, 35 points) at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

It is a Liga Portugal match on April 11, 2026, 4:30 PM

AVS, at the bottom of the table, is fighting against relegation, while Vitória Guimarães is in the middle of the standings

Form

AVS's form in the last five games is DDLDL

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last match was a 0-3 loss against Gil Vicente

Vitória Guimarães shows a form of DLLLW in their last five games

This includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

In their last match, Vitória Guimarães won 5-0 against Tondela

Legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

AVS scores an average of 0.64 goals and concedes 2.18 goals per game this season

They kept 4 clean sheets and had over 2.5 goals in 17 matches

Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 1.5 goals per match

They had 8 clean sheets and over 2.5 goals in 14 matches

AVS home games average 1.8 total goals

In the last 5 games at this venue, there were no matches where both teams scored

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, AVS won 1 time and Vitória Guimarães won 2 times, with no draws

AVS scored 1 goal in total, while Vitória Guimarães scored 6 goals

The last encounter was won by Vitória Guimarães with a 4-0 score on November 28, 2025

The recent head-to-head matches show a dominance by Vitória Guimarães

Key Players

For AVS, Adriel is an important player with a season rating of 6.88 and a rising form trend (7.09 in the last 5 games)

Tomané has 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Pedro Lima Barros contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

AVS goalkeeper Adriel played in 11 games and achieved 4 clean sheets

Vitória Guimarães goalkeeper Charles made 13 appearances and kept 8 clean sheets

Influences

AVS scored an average of 0.62 goals and conceded 1.5 goals in home games

Vitória Guimarães scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 3.0 goals in away games

The grass pitch at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves saw an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 0 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

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