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Liga Portugal

Tondela - Gil Vicente

04/13/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Tondela
0.9
Total xG
2.6
Gil Vicente
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
TONGV

Tondela

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.77
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap)
-0.11
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.8 goals/match)

Gil Vicente

Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+0.67
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

17%

Draw

26%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

83%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Gil Vicente shows significantly stronger performance this season with an average of 1.50 goals scored and only 1.00 goal conceded compared to Tondela's 0.70 goals and 1.63 goals conceded
  • Gil Vicente averaged 4.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, while Tondela averaged 3.0 shots on target
  • The mathematical analysis shows a clear 57% probability for an away win for Gil Vicente
Risk Factors
  • Tondela scores only an average of 0.69 goals per home game
  • Tondela recorded an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Tondela (17th place, 20 points) host Gil Vicente (6th place, 45 points) at Estádio João Cardoso

Liga Portugal match on April 13, 2026, 8:15 PM

The hosts are fighting against relegation, while Gil Vicente aims to defend its position in the upper half of the table

Form

Tondela's form across all competitions is WDLDL

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Their last match was a 0-5 loss against Vitória Guimarães

Gil Vicente's form is LDDLW, which means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Gil Vicente won their last match 3-0 against AVS

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tondela scores an average of 0.70 goals per game and concedes 1.63 goals per game

At home, these values are 0.69 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

Tondela kept 5 clean sheets and saw both teams score in 9 matches

Gil Vicente scores an average of 1.50 goals and concedes 1.00 goal per game

Away from home, they score 1.55 goals and concede 1.45 goals

Gil Vicente kept 11 clean sheets and saw both teams score in 13 matches

The Estádio João Cardoso sees an average of 1.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 1 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams in Liga Portugal

The last encounter took place on November 29, 2025, where Gil Vicente lost 0-1 at home against Tondela

Key Players

For Tondela, Maranhão in attack is a key figure with 6 season goals and 1 assist, his average rating is 6.97

Defender Bebeto scored 2 season goals with a rating of 6.74 and shows rising form

In midfield, Joe Hodge contributed 1 assist with an average rating of 6.68

For Gil Vicente, Luís André Leite Esteves in midfield stands out with 3 goals and 8 assists and a rating of 7.23

Santiago García González, also in midfield, has 6 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.15

In attack, Murilo de Souza Costa is an important player with 8 goals and 4 assists and a rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

Bernardo is Tondela's goalkeeper and has 5 clean sheets this season

Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira is Gil Vicente's goalkeeper

Gil Vicente as a team has completed 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

Tondela scores an average of 0.69 goals at home and concedes 1.31 goals, suggesting a defensive home strength

The Estádio João Cardoso sees an average of 1.4 goals per game

Statistics show both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and only 1 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

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