Liga Portugal
Alverca - Casa Pia
04/12/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.3
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
13%0:0
11%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Alverca
Casa Pia
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
29%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Alverca with 52%
- Alverca's current form is positive, they are scoring more frequently (1.5) than their season average (1.1)
- Casa Pia's goal production is struggling (0.5) and their away defense is vulnerable with 2.6 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
- Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.6 goals per away game
- Casa Pia recorded an average of only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Alverca (11th place, 32 points) host Casa Pia (16th place, 25 points) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Liga Portugal match on April 12, 2026, 3:30 PM
Casa Pia is in a relegation battle and desperately needs points
Form
Alverca's recent form is W-D-D-D-L (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Alverca is currently unbeaten in 1 match (1 consecutive win)
Casa Pia's form in their last 5 games is D-L-D-D-L
They recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
Casa Pia is currently unbeaten in 1 match (1 consecutive draw)
Statistics
Alverca scored an average of 1.04 goals per game this season and conceded 1.64 goals
At home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded
Casa Pia scored an average of 1.0 goals per game and conceded 1.81 goals
Away from home, Casa Pia conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match
Alverca is currently scoring more frequently (1.5) than their season average (1.1)
Casa Pia's goal production is struggling (0.5), with a season average of 1.1
An average of 2.4 goals per game were scored at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches at this stadium, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 1 previous head-to-head match, Alverca leads with 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses
The goal difference is 2:0 in favor of Alverca
Alverca won the last encounter on November 29, 2025, with a 2:0 score against Casa Pia
Historically, Alverca has been the dominant team in this fixture recently
Key Players
For Alverca, Figueiredo (4 goals, 2 assists seasonally, 2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, rising form), Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 5 assists seasonally, 2 assists in last 5 games) and Kaiky Marques Naves (1 goal seasonally, 1 goal in last 5 games) are important players
For Casa Pia, Cassiano (5 goals seasonally, 3 goals in last 5 games, rising form) and Jérèmy Livolant (3 goals, 7 assists seasonally, declining form) showed good performances
Gaizka Larrazabal contributed 1 assist in the last 5 games
Not nominated for Casa Pia are Abdu Conté (0G/2A) and Korede Osundina (2G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira for Alverca made 3 appearances this season
Alverca recorded a total of 6 clean sheets this season
Patrick Sequeira for Casa Pia started 22 season games and showed a declining form
Casa Pia kept a total of 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Alverca scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 1.67 goals at home
Casa Pia proved more vulnerable away, with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded
At Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches