🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Famalicão - Moreirense

04/10/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Famalicão
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Moreirense
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

0:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
FAMMOR

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.56
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.85
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.23
Luís Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

28%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 58% probability and 1.54 expected home goals
  • Famalicão's stable form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five games contrasts with Moreirense's negative run
  • Famalicão averages 1.28 goals scored at home and concedes only 0.5 goals, while Moreirense concedes 1.5 goals away from home
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense's offense is weak in the last five games with an average of 2.8 shots on target and only 0.4 goals per game
  • Historically, 3 out of 5 direct encounters ended in a draw, which could indicate a tough match
Overview

Famalicão (5th place, 46 points) host Moreirense (9th place, 35 points) at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

This Liga Portugal match takes place on April 10, 2026, 8:45 PM

Famalicão are aiming for European qualification spots, while Moreirense are in the middle of the table

Form

Home team Famalicão shows stable form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches (DWWWD)

Their last game ended in a draw

Moreirense, however, is in a poor phase with 2 draws and 3 losses (DDLLL)

They lost their last match and have suffered three consecutive losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Famalicão demonstrates defensive stability at home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per game

Offensively, they score an average of 1.28 home goals

Moreirense concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away match

The team scores an average of 1.07 goals away from home

At Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, an average of 2.2 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there has been a balanced record

Famalicão won 1 game, Moreirense also won 1 game, and 3 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 4:3 in favor of Famalicão

The last encounter on November 29, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Famalicão has several dangerous players

Sorriso scored 5 goals and 4 assists this season, with an average rating of 7.07

Gil Dias contributed 3 goals and 6 assists, with an average rating of 7.01

Gustavo Sá provided 4 goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 7.00

For Moreirense, Alan de Souza Guimarães is an important player with 3 goals and 5 assists, average rating 7.01

Travassos recorded 4 goals and 3 assists, with a rating of 6.89

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga has 3 seasonal goals

Not nominated: Luís Semedo (2 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Famalicão relies on Lazar Carević, who kept 14 clean sheets in 28 season appearances

André Ferreira is in goal for Moreirense, keeping 7 clean sheets in 19 matches

Influences

Famalicão has a home advantage, scoring 1.28 goals and conceding 0.5 goals at their own stadium

The Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho sees an average of 2.2 goals per game

There were goals from both sides in only 1 out of 5 matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.