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Bundesliga

Bayer 04 Leverkusen - FC Bayern München

03/14/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.4
Total xG
3.0
FC Bayern München
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
B0LFBM

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
Alejandro Grimaldo not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Christian Kofane on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Ibrahim Maza on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)

FC Bayern München

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.46
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Attack strength (2.16x league average)
-0.04
Harry Kane on the bench (30 goals, 5 assists)
Serge Gnabry on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Leon Goretzka on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Min-jae Kim on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (2.7 vs 3.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

27%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Dominant form of FC Bayern München with 5 consecutive wins
  • Bayern's offensive power with an average of 3.68 goals per game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 39%
Risk Factors
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen has only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 44 points) host FC Bayern München (1st place, 66 points) at the BayArena

Bundesliga match on March 14, 2026, 3:30 PM

The hosts aim to stay in contention for Champions League spots, while Bayern seeks to extend their league lead

Form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) across all competitions is DDWDD

This includes 1 win and 4 draws

Their last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Arsenal

FC Bayern München shows an impeccable form of WWWWW

The visitors have achieved 5 wins and 0 draws in their last five matches

Their last game was a 6-1 win against Atalanta

Bayern is currently in a stable form with 5 consecutive wins

Statistics

Bayer 04 Leverkusen averages 1.92 goals scored per game and concedes 1.28 goals

At home, they average 1.92 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded

The team kept 7 clean sheets, 6 of which were at home

Both teams scored in 14 matches, and 14 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goal production is currently stagnating at 1.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.8

FC Bayern München averages 3.68 goals scored per game and concedes 0.96 goals

Away from home, they average 3.64 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded

Bayern kept 9 clean sheets, 5 of which were away

Both teams scored in 16 matches, and all 25 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

FC Bayern München consistently scores around 3.7 goals per game

The BayArena has seen an average of 2.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has 0 wins, FC Bayern München has 3 wins, and there have been 2 draws

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored a total of 1 goal, while FC Bayern München scored 9 goals

The last encounter on November 01, 2025, ended in a 3-0 victory for FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Patrik Schick (Attacker) is a key player with 7 goals and 2 assists, averaging a rating of 6.94

Ernest Poku (Attacker) contributed 5 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.9

Aleix García (Midfielder) has scored 1 goal and provided 5 assists with an average rating of 7.36

For FC Bayern München, Michael Olise (Attacker) stands out with 10 goals and 16 assists and an average rating of 7.88, though his form is slightly declining

Luis Díaz (Attacker) has scored 14 goals and provided 11 assists with a rating of 7.64, also with declining form

Joshua Kimmich (Midfielder) is an important player with 2 goals and 6 assists and an average rating of 7.65, his form is also declining

Goalkeepers

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Janis Blaswich is in goal, achieving an average rating of 7.09 in 9 season appearances

The team has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

For FC Bayern München, Sven Ulreich is expected to be the goalkeeper, with no appearances this season

The team has a total of 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

At the BayArena, the average total goals per game is 2.2

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 2 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.92 goals at home and concedes 0.85 goals

FC Bayern München scores 3.64 goals away and concedes 1.0 goal per game

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