Liga Portugal
Benfica - Nacional
04/12/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.7
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Benfica
Nacional
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
24%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Benfica has a home win probability of 63% and is predicted to score 1.91 goals
- Benfica shows strong form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, in contrast to Nacional's poor form with 3 losses
- Benfica dominates head-to-head matches with 3 wins and a season goal record of 2.11:0.64 compared to Nacional's 1.11:1.39
Overview
Benfica (3rd place, 66 points) host Nacional (15th place, 25 points) at EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Liga Portugal match on April 12, 2026, 6:00 PM
Benfica is fighting for the top spots, while Nacional is in a relegation battle
Form
Benfica shows strong form in their last five matches with WDWWD
This corresponds to 3 wins, 2 draws, and no losses
Their last game was a 1-1 draw against Casa Pia
Nacional, on the other hand, shows poor form with LDLLW in their last five matches
This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
In their last match, Nacional secured a 2-0 win against Estrela Amadora
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Benfica scores an average of 2.11 goals per game this season and concedes 0.64 goals
Benfica also kept 13 clean sheets
At home, Benfica scores an average of 2.06 goals and concedes 0.62 goals per home game
Nacional scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 1.39 goals per match
Nacional kept 5 clean sheets
Away, Nacional scores an average of 1.09 goals and concedes 1.64 goals per away game
The EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica records an average of 2.8 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games here, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the 3 direct encounters between Benfica and Nacional, Benfica has won all 3 matches
Nacional has not recorded any wins, and there have been no draws
Benfica scored a total of 7 goals, while Nacional conceded only 1 goal
The last meeting ended with a 2-1 away win for Benfica on November 29, 2025
Key Players
For Benfica, Vangelis Pavlidis is a key offensive player with 22 goals and 4 assists, and a season rating of 7.33
Richard RĂos showed 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.27
Gianluca Prestianni has scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.25, and his form is rising
For Nacional, JesĂșs RamĂrez is the top scorer this season with 14 goals and 0 assists
José Gomes contributed 1 assist in his last 5 games and received a rating of 7.01, with his form rising
LĂ©o Santos has recorded 1 assist in his last 5 games and a rating of 6.96, with his form being stable
Goalkeepers
Benfica's goalkeeper, Anatoliy Trubin, kept 13 clean sheets this season
Kaique, Nacional's goalkeeper, managed to keep 5 clean sheets
Influences
Benfica benefits from a strong home advantage, averaging 2.06 home goals scored and only 0.62 goals conceded per game
The EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica has a history of averaging 2.8 total goals per game
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the last 5 games at the stadium
The pitch surface at the stadium is grass