Liga Portugal
Estoril - Porto
04/12/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.8
1.9
1:1
12%0:2
11%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
Estoril
Porto
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
17%
Draw
25%
Away Win
58%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
42%
Away or Draw
83%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts a high win probability of 58% for Porto
- Form advantage: Porto is unbeaten in five games and shows stable form, while Estoril suffered two consecutive losses
- Defensive strength: Porto has a clearly superior defense with an average of 0.46 goals conceded per game compared to Estoril's 1.68 goals conceded
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Porto had only 3 days since their last match
- Key absences: Porto is missing important attackers S. Omorodion Aghehowa (13 goals) and L. de Jong (1 goal) due to cruciate ligament injuries
- High-scoring home venue: Estoril's home stadium has averaged 3.4 total goals and an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 games, suggesting a more open match
Overview
Estoril (7th place, 37 points) hosts Porto (1st place, 73 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in a Liga Portugal match on April 12, 2026, 8:30 PM. The mathematical analysis identifies Porto as clear favorites with a 58% win probability. Porto is fighting at the top of the table, while Estoril is in the mid-table.
Form
Estoril's form in the last five matches is LDWLL, indicating 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. They have suffered two consecutive losses recently. Porto, on the other hand, is unbeaten in their last five games with a form of WWWDD, comprising 3 wins and 2 draws, with their last two matches being draws. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Estoril averages 1.79 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 16 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches. Porto has a season average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.46 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 2.08 goals and concede 0.54 goals. Both teams scored in 10 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches. The Estádio António Coimbra da Mota has seen an average of 3.4 total goals in the last 5 games, with an 80% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 rate.
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Estoril secured 2 victories, while Porto claimed 3 wins, with no draws recorded. The goal difference stands at 3:7 in favor of Porto. The last direct match was won by Porto on November 30, 2025, with a score of 1-0 against Estoril.
Key Players
For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui with 18 goals and 1 assist, João Carvalho with 6 goals and 12 assists, and Jordan Holsgrove with 1 goal and 7 assists are key players. For Porto, Victor Froholdt stands out with 4 goals and 7 assists, Gabri Veiga with 2 goals and 6 assists, and Oskar Pietuszewski with 3 goals and 2 assists. Oskar Pietuszewski has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, while Yanis Begraoui shows a declining form trend.
Goalkeepers
Estoril's goalkeeper, Joel Robles, managed 5 clean sheets this season. On the opposing side, Porto's Diogo Costa recorded an impressive 18 clean sheets.
Influences
The Estádio António Coimbra da Mota tends to be a high-scoring venue, averaging 3.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80% of matches. Estoril scores an average of 1.8 goals at home and concedes 1.27 goals. Porto is defensively very strong away from home, with an average of 2.08 goals scored and only 0.54 goals conceded per game.