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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Alverca

04/18/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Nacional
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Alverca
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
NACALV

Nacional

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.15
LĂ©o Santos not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)

Alverca

Rising form (2 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
10% of goal output missing (only 93% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nacional with Gabriel Veron: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Alverca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Alverca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Alverca with André Nogueira Gomes: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 2.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Alverca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

30%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Alverca shows a positive form trend and increased goal production of 2.0 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Nacional is struggling with negative form and lower goal production of 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.1
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 38% win probability for Alverca compared to 32% for Nacional
  • Alverca won the only previous head-to-head match
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 30%
  • Nacional must do without LĂ©o Santos (3 goals, 2 assists), who is not in the lineup
  • Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, conceding over 1.4 goals per game on average
  • There is only limited historical head-to-head data with just one match
Overview

Nacional (15th place, 25 points) host Alverca (10th place, 35 points) at EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on April 18, 2026, 4:30 PM

Nacional is fighting against relegation, while Alverca is positioned in the middle of the table

Form

Nacional shows poor form with DLLWL in their last five matches

This includes a loss as their last result

Overall, Nacional recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games

Alverca is in better shape with DDLWW in their last five matches

They have won their last two games and are on a 2-win streak

Alverca's record in the last five games shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nacional averages 1.07 goals scored per game and concedes 1.41 goals

Alverca averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes 1.62 goals per game

In home matches, Nacional scores 1.06 goals and concedes 1.17 goals

Alverca scores 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals

For Nacional, 15 games ended with both teams scoring and 13 games had over 2.5 goals

For Alverca, there were 17 games with both teams scoring and 16 games with over 2.5 goals

The EstĂĄdio da Madeira venue records an average of 1.4 goals per game

Only 1 out of 5 games saw both teams score, and 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals at EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Nacional and Alverca so far

Alverca won this single match away with a score of 1:0 on December 7, 2025

Based on this one match, Alverca has recently shown dominance

Key Players

For Nacional, JesĂșs RamĂ­rez is a key player with 14 season goals

His form trend has recently been declining

Paulinho BĂłia contributed 4 season goals and 2 assists

His form shows a positive trend

Ze Vitor has scored 4 season goals and provided 1 assist

His form is also on the rise

On Alverca's side, Figueiredo is important with 5 season goals and 2 assists

His form trend is currently rising

Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos shone with 2 season goals and 5 assists

He contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games

Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira has delivered 2 season goals and 3 assists

In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Kaique is Nacional's goalkeeper with 23 season appearances

Nacional has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira made 4 season appearances for Alverca

Alverca has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Nacional scores an average of 1.06 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals

Alverca scores 1.13 goals away and concedes 1.73 goals

EstĂĄdio da Madeira is known for an average of 1.4 goals per game

The 'both teams to score' rate is only 20% at this stadium

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