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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Vitória Guimarães

04/18/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Vitória Guimarães
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
GVVG

Gil Vicente

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.40
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Full strength squad available

Vitória Guimarães

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.38
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Oumar Camara on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Gonçalo Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gil Vicente: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Gil Vicente with Lucão: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 4.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vitória Guimarães with Nélson Oliveira: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Vitória Guimarães: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

33%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Gil Vicente's Home Strength: The team demonstrates strong home performance with an average of 1.56 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game
  • Vitória Guimarães' Away Weakness: Vitória Guimarães conceded an average of 2.78 goals per away match
  • Analysis Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Gil Vicente with a 40% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Gil Vicente's Draw Tendency: Gil Vicente has drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, which could indicate a propensity for shared points
  • Conflicting Goal Expectation: Although Estádio Cidade de Barcelos averages 3.6 goals per game, the model's probability for over 2.5 goals is only 35%
Overview

Gil Vicente (6th place, 46 points) host Vitória Guimarães (8th place, 36 points) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Liga Portugal. The match takes place on April 18, 2026, 8:30 PM. Gil Vicente is fighting for European qualification, while Vitória Guimarães seeks to catch up with the top spots.

Form

Gil Vicente's league form over the last five matches (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is DDLWD

This equates to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Vitória Guimarães has a form of LLLWD in their last five league games

This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Both teams drew their last match

Statistics

Gil Vicente averages 1.52 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.03 goals over the season

At home, these values improve to an average of 1.56 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Gil Vicente kept 11 clean sheets, with 6 at home

Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.21 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals

Away from home, their stats are 1.22 goals scored and 2.78 goals conceded per game

Vitória Guimarães achieved 8 clean sheets this season, 4 of them away

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos sees an average of 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and all 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente secured 1 win, Vitória Guimarães won 3 times, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference is 7:2 in favor of Vitória Guimarães

The last encounter on December 8, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Historically, Vitória Guimarães shows a slight dominance in recent direct away duels

Key Players

For Gil Vicente, Murilo de Souza Costa (9 goals, 4 assists, Ø 6.99 rating) and Santiago García González (6 goals, 3 assists, Ø 7.15 rating) are key offensive players, with Murilo scoring 2 goals in the last 5 games

Luís André Leite Esteves contributed 3 goals and 8 assists with an Ø 7.23 rating this season, his form is declining

For Vitória Guimarães, Samu (6 goals, 3 assists, Ø 6.90 rating) stands out, delivering 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Gustavo Silva has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist this season, with 2 goals in the last 5 games

Noah Jose Saviolo recorded 2 goals and 4 assists this season

Not nominated for Vitória Guimarães are Oumar Camara (5G/2A) and Gonçalo Nogueira (0G/3A)

Goalkeepers

Gil Vicente's goalkeeper, Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira, has an average rating of 6.94 in 5 season appearances

The team achieved 11 clean sheets this season

Vitória Guimarães' goalkeeper, Charles, has an average rating of 6.66 in 14 season appearances

Vitória Guimarães achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Gil Vicente's home strength is evident with an average of 1.56 home goals scored and only 0.75 home goals conceded

The stadium averages 3.6 goals per game, and all of the last 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

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