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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - AVS

04/17/2026, 07:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
1.3
Total xG
2.0
AVS
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

17%

0:0

16%

1:1

14%

2:0

12%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
RAAVS

Rio Ave

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 18, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Tamás Nikitscher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

AVS

Attack weakness (0.35x league average)
-0.70
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.3 vs 0.7 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 11, 7 places gap)
-0.05
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

32%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Favorite role: The mathematical analysis predicts a 50% win probability for Rio Ave
  • Form advantage: Rio Ave shows strong form with 4 wins in the last 5 games, while AVS is winless in 5 games
  • Defensive weakness: AVS is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding Avg. 3.08 goals per game, while Rio Ave's offense has recently strengthened
Risk Factors
  • Limited goal opportunities: AVS has recently adopted a counter-attacking approach, averaging only Avg. 2.6 shots on target
  • Low BTTS probability: According to the model, the probability of both teams scoring is only 37%
Overview

Rio Ave (11th place, 33 points) host AVS (18th place, 12 points) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 17, 2026, 8:45 PM

Rio Ave aims to consolidate its position in the midfield

AVS, as the bottom team, is fighting against relegation

Form

Rio Ave's form in the last five games is "WWWLW"

This corresponds to 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss

The mathematical analysis shows Rio Ave currently scores more frequently (Avg. 1.6 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.2 goals), indicating a positive trend

AVS shows a form of "DLDLD" in their last five matches

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

AVS's goal production is stagnant (Avg. 0.3 goals), with the season average at Avg. 0.7 goals, indicating a negative trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Rio Ave scored 31 goals this season (Avg. 1.07 goals per game) and conceded 48 goals (Avg. 1.66 goals per game)

At home, Rio Ave averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.77 goals conceded

AVS is the weakest offensive team in the league with an average of Avg. 0.66 goals per game and conceded a total of 62 goals (Avg. 2.14 goals per game)

Away from home, AVS is particularly vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of Avg. 3.08 goals per game

Rio Ave kept 5 clean sheets, while AVS kept 4 clean sheets

At Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, an average of 2.4 goals were scored in the last 5 matches

In 60% of these games, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 win for Rio Ave and 1 win for AVS, with 1 draw

The goal difference is even at 3:3 goals

Rio Ave won the last encounter away with a score of 2:1 on December 6, 2025

The overall head-to-head record is balanced

Key Players

For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa (Attacker) is notable with 6 season goals (5 goals in the last 5 games) and rising form

Dario Spikic (Attacker) contributed 2 season goals and 3 assists (3 assists in the last 5 games) and shows rising form

Marios Vrousai (Defender) contributed 1 season goal and 2 assists (1 assist in the last 5 games) with similarly rising form

For AVS, Tomané (Attacker) is the top scorer with 3 season goals (1 goal in the last 5 games) and stable form

Pedro Lima Barros (Midfielder) contributed 1 season goal and 2 assists and shows rising form

Óscar Perea (Attacker) scored 2 season goals with stable form

Goalkeepers

Rio Ave's goalkeeper Cezary Miszta played in 17 season games and achieved 5 clean sheets

For AVS, Adriel played in 12 season games and achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

Rio Ave shows an average home goal production of Avg. 1.08 goals and concedes Avg. 1.77 goals

AVS concedes an average of Avg. 3.08 goals per away game

An average of 2.4 goals per game are scored at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

In 60% of the last games, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals

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