Liga Portugal
Arouca - Estrela Amadora
04/19/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Arouca
Estrela Amadora
The Lab
- 1Estrela Amadora with Luan Patrick: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Arouca with Alfonso Trezza: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 3.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Arouca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Arouca: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Arouca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Mathematical Forecast: Arouca is favored with a home win probability of 44%
- High-Scoring Home Games: The Estádio Municipal de Arouca has averaged 3.8 goals in the last 5 matches, with 100% over 2.5 goals
- Away Weakness: Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.36 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Arouca's recent goal production has declined (1.0 goals), while their season average is 1.3 goals
- The head-to-head comparison is even, suggesting no clear historical dominance
Overview
Arouca (12th place, 32 points) hosts Estrela Amadora (15th place, 28 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Liga Portugal match on April 19, 2026, 3:30 PM
Both teams are fighting for important points in the mid-table battle
Form
Arouca's form in the last five games (LLWWL) shows 2 wins and 3 losses
Their last match was a defeat against Sporting Braga
Estrela Amadora's form in the last five games (DLWLL) includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
They have lost their last two consecutive matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Arouca averaged 1.28 goals scored per game this season and conceded 2.0 goals per game
At home, they average 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 goals conceded
Estrela Amadora scored an average of 1.14 goals per game and conceded 1.66 goals per game
Away from home, they concede an average of 2.36 goals per game
Arouca's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), while their season average is 1.3 goals
Estrela Amadora consistently scores around 1.4 goals per game
At the Estádio Municipal de Arouca, the last 5 matches averaged 3.8 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 previous head-to-head matches, Arouca secured 2 wins, Estrela Amadora also had 2 wins, and there was 1 draw
Arouca scored 7 goals in total, while Estrela Amadora scored 6 goals
The last encounter was on December 7, 2025, where Estrela Amadora won 3-1
The head-to-head record is even
Key Players
For Arouca, Iván Barbero is a key attacking player with 7 goals and 2 assists, showing a declining form recently
Naïs Djouahra contributed 6 goals and 3 assists, his form is stable
Midfielder Hyun-ju Lee scored 5 goals and provided 3 assists, maintaining stable form
For Estrela Amadora, Abraham Marcus is in rising form with 5 goals and 5 assists
Rodrigo Pinho scored 4 goals and made 1 assist, also showing rising form
Ianis Stoica has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists with stable form
Goalkeepers
Arouca's goalkeeper, Ignacio de Arruabarrena, has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Estrela Amadora's goalkeeper, Renan Ribeiro, recorded 7 clean sheets
Influences
Arouca scores an average of 1.31 home goals and concedes 1.69 goals at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca
The stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per match
Both teams scored in 80% of recent home matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 100%
The grass surface at Estádio Municipal de Arouca will be used for the match