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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Estoril

04/20/2026, 07:15 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Moreirense
0.9
Total xG
2.3
Estoril
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
MOREST

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.37x league average)
-0.90
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.22
JĂłbson de Brito Gonzaga not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
LuĂ­s Semedo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

Estoril

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.17
JoĂŁo Carvalho on the bench (6 goals, 12 assists)
Jordan Holsgrove on the bench (1 goals, 7 assists)
Ricard SĂĄnchez not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estoril with Ferro: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Yanis Begraoui: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Moreirense with LuĂ­s Semedo: 0.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Estoril: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

30%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Forecast: The analysis favors Estoril with a 49% win probability
  • Form: Moreirense shows very weak form with 0 wins in their last 5 games
  • Offensive Strength: Estoril is stronger offensively in Liga Portugal with an average of 1.76 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Limited Goal Threat for Estoril: Only 58% of the usual starting XI attacking strength is available, without JoĂŁo Carvalho (6G/12A), Jordan Holsgrove (1G/7A), Ricard SĂĄnchez (2G/3A)
  • Moreirense averaged only 1.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Estoril concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game
Overview

Moreirense (9th place, 36 points) host Estoril (8th place, 37 points) at the Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Liga Portugal match on April 20, 2026, 8:15 PM

The teams are close in the table and are fighting for a better mid-table position

Form

Moreirense's form in the last five games is DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

The last match was a 1-1 away draw against FamalicĂŁo

Estoril's form in their last five matches is DWLLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Their last match ended in a 1-3 loss against Porto

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Moreirense scored an average of 1.1 goals per game this season and conceded 1.41 goals

At home, they scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded 1.36 goals

Estoril scored an average of 1.76 goals per game and conceded 1.72 goals

Away from home, Estoril scored an average of 1.77 goals and conceded 2.15 goals

At Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 3 draws

Moreirense won 2 games and Estoril 0

The goal difference of 12:9 slightly favors Moreirense

The last encounter on December 7, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw

Key Players

For Moreirense, important players include: Alan de Souza GuimarĂŁes (3 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 6.99 rating) who showed a slightly declining form

Travassos (4 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.87 rating) is also in a declining form trend

Rodrigo Alonso MartĂ­n (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.65 rating) is in stable form and scored 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Estoril, Yanis Begraoui (19 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 7.09 rating) is a key player with declining form

Ferro (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.81 rating) recently showed a rising form

Felix Bacher (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.78 rating) is in stable form

Goalkeepers

Moreirense is expected to start with André Ferreira in goal, who has an average rating of 6.86 in 20 season appearances

His team recorded 7 clean sheets

For Estoril, Martin Turk is expected in goal, having made 0 season appearances so far

Estoril achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Moreirense's home goals stand at an average of 1.14 per game, while conceding an average of 1.36 away goals

At Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, an average of 2.0 goals were scored in the last 5 games

In addition, both teams scored in 40% of the games and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of the games

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