Liga Portugal
Casa Pia - Santa Clara
04/18/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.3
1.4
1:1
14%0:1
12%0:0
11%0:2
10%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
The Lab
- 1Casa Pia with Clau Mendes: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Santa Clara: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Casa Pia: 74% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
22%
Draw
30%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
78%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 48% win probability for Santa Clara, compared to 22% for Casa Pia
- Santa Clara holds a dominant record in head-to-head encounters, with 3 wins and a 5-1 goal difference in 3 matches
- Santa Clara has shown a more positive recent form trend and has a better defensive record (1.28 goals conceded on average) than Casa Pia (1.86 goals conceded on average)
Risk Factors
- Casa Pia averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating offensive difficulties
- Estádio Pina Manique is known for an average of 3.6 goals per game and a 100% 'Both teams scored' rate, which could lead to a high-scoring match
- Santa Clara has suffered two consecutive away losses recently, which could impact their performance on the road
Overview
Casa Pia (16th place, 25 points) host Santa Clara (13th place, 28 points) at Estádio Pina Manique
Liga Portugal match on April 18, 2026, 5:00 PM
A crucial encounter in the lower half of the table, with Santa Clara aiming to extend their lead over the relegation zone
Form
Casa Pia's form across all competitions is 'DDLDL' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last result was a loss
Santa Clara's form is 'WWWLL'
With 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games, their recent run ended with two consecutive losses
Statistics
Casa Pia averages 1.00 goals scored per game and concedes 1.86 goals per game
Santa Clara averages 0.90 goals scored per game and concedes 1.28 goals per game
Casa Pia kept 5 clean sheets, Santa Clara 8 clean sheets
At Estádio Pina Manique, an average of 3.6 goals per game were scored
Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia has 0 wins, while Santa Clara has 3 wins
The goal difference is 1:5 in favor of Santa Clara
The last encounter on December 06, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Santa Clara
Santa Clara has dominated recent matchups
Key Players
For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant is a key player with 3 goals and 8 assists in 28 appearances
Cassiano scored 5 goals in 27 games, with 1 goal in his last 5 matches
Gaizka Larrazabal contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in 27 matches
For Santa Clara, Vinícius Lopes stands out with 6 goals and 1 assist in 24 games, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 outings
Serginho contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in 28 appearances
Gabriel Silva scored 4 goals in 24 games and found the net once in his last 5 matches
Goalkeepers
Casa Pia's goalkeeper Patrick Sequeira has recorded 5 clean sheets this season
Santa Clara's goalkeeper Gabriel Batista has 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Casa Pia scores an average of 1.00 goals at home and concedes 1.35 goals
Santa Clara scores an average of 0.87 goals away and concedes 1.40 goals
Estádio Pina Manique is known for an average of 3.6 goals per game, with 'Both teams scored' in 5 out of 5 games and 'Over 2.5 goals' in 3 out of 5 games