Liga Portugal
Porto - Tondela
04/19/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.3
0.5
1:0
16%2:0
15%0:0
11%1:1
11%3:0
9%What influences the xG?
Porto
Tondela
The Lab
- 1Porto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Tondela with Hugo FĂ©lix: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Porto with Rodrigo Mora: 6.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Porto: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5Porto: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
66%
Draw
25%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
34%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
36%
No
64%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Porto with a probability of 66%
- Porto is at the top of the league table with 76 points, while Tondela is in 17th place with 21 points and shows significantly weaker form (0 wins in 5 games)
- Porto's strong home offense averaging 2.07 goals per game faces Tondela's vulnerable away defense, which concedes an average of 2.08 goals
Risk Factors
- Porto had only 3 days since their last match, which could indicate fatigue
- Tondela's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Tondela averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Porto (1st place, 76 points) hosts Tondela (17th place, 21 points) at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 19, 2026, 8:30 PM. Porto is fighting for the top of the table, while Tondela battles against relegation.
Form
Porto shows a form of WDDWL in the last five matches (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The home team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with the last game being a loss. Tondela displays a form of DLDLD in their last five games. The visitors registered 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with the last game ending in a draw.
Statistics
Porto scores an average of 2.03 goals per game and concedes 0.48 goals. At home, the average is 2.07 goals scored and 0.43 goals conceded. They kept 18 clean sheets. Tondela scores an average of 0.75 goals per game and concedes 1.64 goals. Away, their average is 0.77 goals scored and 2.08 goals conceded. Tondela managed only 5 clean sheets. At the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, an average of 3.0 goals per game occurred in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games (60%) and over 2.5 goals scored in 3 out of 5 games (60%).
Head-to-Head
In the only direct encounter between Porto and Tondela, Porto won away with a score of 2-0. The match took place on December 7, 2025.
Key Players
For Porto, Victor Froholdt (5 goals, 7 assists, Avg. 7.02) and PepĂȘ (3 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 6.97) are crucial. Oskar Pietuszewski (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.95) showed good form in the last five games with 2 goals and 1 assist. For Tondela, MaranhĂŁo (6 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.96) stands out as the top scorer. Rony Lopes (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.91) and Joe Hodge (1 goal, 1 assist, Avg. 6.70) are other important players.
Goalkeepers
Diogo Costa, Porto's goalkeeper, has kept 18 clean sheets this season. Bernardo for Tondela has achieved 5 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Porto holds a clear home advantage, with an average of 2.07 home goals and only 0.43 goals conceded. The EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo sees an average of 3.0 goals per game. In 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%.