Bundesliga
Werder Bremen - FSV Mainz 05
03/15/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
28%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: A home win for Werder Bremen is calculated with 52% probability, with 1.62 predicted home goals
- Home Dominance in H2H: Werder Bremen won 4 out of 5 direct encounters against Mainz
- Form Trend: Werder Bremen's goal production is rising (1.4 recent), while Mainz's goal production is stagnant (1.0 recent)
Risk Factors
- FSV Mainz 05 with only 3 days since the last match
- N. Amiri (10 goals, 2 assists) is missing for Mainz, only 79% of goal threat is available
- FSV Mainz 05 concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
Overview
Werder Bremen (14th place, 25 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (15th place, 24 points) at the Wohninvest Weserstadion. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 15, 2026, at 3:30 PM. Both teams are involved in the relegation battle and are separated by just one point.
Form
Werder Bremen shows a mixed form across all competitions with 'LLLWW'. This accounts for 2 wins and 3 losses, with the last two matches won. FSV Mainz 05 has a form of 'LDDDD', with 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. Their last four games ended in a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.16 goals per game and concedes 1.80 goals. At home, they score 1.17 goals and concede 1.75 goals. FSV Mainz 05 also scores 1.16 goals per game but concedes only 1.64 goals. Away from home, they concede an average of 2.08 goals per match. In the last 5 games at the Wohninvest Weserstadion, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Werder Bremen dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw. The goal difference is 9:2 in favor of Werder Bremen. The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw. Werder Bremen has been the dominant team in recent meetings.
Key Players
For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage (7 goals, 2 assists), Romano Schmid (2 goals, 7 assists), and Marco GrĆ¼ll (3 goals, 1 assist) are important players. Romano Schmid's form trend is rising. For FSV Mainz 05, Jae-sung Lee (3 goals, 2 assists), Danny da Costa (2 goals, 3 assists), and Phillip Tietz (1 goal, 2 assists) are among the players with the most scorer points. Most of the mentioned Mainz players show a declining form.
Goalkeepers
Werder Bremen's goalkeeper is Mio Backhaus, who has recorded 5 clean sheets so far. For FSV Mainz 05, Daniel Batz is in goal, achieving 2 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The home team Werder Bremen scores an average of 1.17 goals at home and concedes 1.75 goals. The grass surface is used. At the Wohninvest Weserstadion, an average of 3.0 goals are scored per game, and both teams score in 40% of the matches.