Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga - Famalicão
04/19/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.1
0.8
1:0
15%1:1
14%0:0
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Sporting Braga
Famalicão
The Lab
- 1Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Famalicão: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Famalicão with Marcos Peña: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
31%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Sporting Braga is favored with a 50% home win probability according to the mathematical analysis
- Famalicão is unbeaten in their last five games (3 wins, 2 draws) and recently averaged 5.2 shots on target
- Sporting Braga's home offense is strong, averaging 1.93 goals per game, but faces Famalicão's solid defense that concedes an average of 1.5 goals away
Risk Factors
- Sporting Braga had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Sporting Braga's goal production is declining (averaging 1.6 goals recently versus a season average of 2.1)
- Famalicão will be without Gustavo Sá (4 goals, 2 assists)
Overview
Sporting Braga (4th place, 52 points) host Famalicão (5th place, 47 points) at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Liga Portugal match on April 19, 2026, 9:30 PM. Both teams are competing for European qualification spots.
Form
Sporting Braga's form across all competitions is LWDWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). They have secured two consecutive wins recently. Famalicão's form is WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) and they are unbeaten in their last two matches with draws. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Sporting Braga averages 1.96 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.93 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded per game. Famalicão averages 1.2 away goals scored and 1.5 away goals conceded per game. Overall, Famalicão has achieved 14 clean sheets, while Sporting Braga has 11. At Estádio Municipal de Braga, the last 5 games averaged 2.8 total goals, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting Braga recorded 2 wins, Famalicão 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Sporting Braga scored 9 goals and Famalicão scored 8 goals during these encounters. The last match on December 06, 2025, saw Sporting Braga win away with a 2-1 score. Sporting Braga has been the more dominant team in recent direct duels.
Key Players
For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta is a crucial attacker with 13 goals and 4 assists in 25 season appearances, despite a slight decline in form over the last five games. Pau Víctor scored 7 goals and 4 assists in 27 appearances, with 2 goals in his last 5 games. Fran Navarro contributed 5 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 matches. Not nominated: Gabri Martínez (0G/3A). For Famalicão, Sorriso is a key player with 5 goals and 4 assists in 28 season appearances. Gil Dias recorded 3 goals and 6 assists in 28 appearances. Defender Rodrigo Pinheiro contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 25 games, including 1 goal in his last 5 matches. Not nominated: Gustavo Sá (4G/2A).
Goalkeepers
Lukas Hornicek is in goal for Sporting Braga, having featured in 28 season appearances. Lazar Carević is the goalkeeper for Famalicão, with 29 appearances. Sporting Braga registered 11 clean sheets, while Famalicão achieved 14 clean sheets.
Influences
Sporting Braga holds a significant home advantage, averaging 1.93 goals scored and only 0.87 goals conceded per home game. The Estádio Municipal de Braga has seen an average of 2.8 total goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 60% of these games, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of them.