Liga Portugal
Sporting CP - Benfica
04/19/2026, 05:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Sporting CP
Benfica
The Lab
- 1Benfica: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Sporting CP with Eduardo Quaresma: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Sporting CP: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Benfica with Alexander Bah: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
29%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 48% probability and 1.53 expected home goals
- Sporting CP demonstrates strong home performance with an average of 2.67 goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded per home game
- Benfica's solid defense (0.62 goals conceded per game overall, 0.67 away) could challenge Sporting CP's offense
Risk Factors
- Sporting CP has a shorter recovery period with only 4 days since their last match
- The pipeline analysis forecasts a 29% probability for a draw, and the last head-to-head match ended 1-1
- Benfica displays stable form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches
Overview
Sporting CP (2nd place, 71 points) host Benfica (3rd place, 69 points) at Estádio José Alvalade. It's a crucial Liga Portugal match on April 19, 2026, 6:00 PM. Sporting CP has played one game less than Benfica and is only 5 points behind league leaders Porto.
Form
Sporting CP's current form (WWLWD) shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches across all competitions. Their last result was a draw. Benfica's form is DWWDW, which translates to 3 wins and 2 draws, making them unbeaten in their last 5 games. Their last result was a win. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Sporting CP has scored an average of 2.61 goals per game and conceded 0.61 goals per game this season. At home, they score even more with 2.67 goals and concede only 0.4 goals per home game. Benfica has scored an average of 2.1 goals and conceded 0.62 goals. Away from home, they have scored 2.17 goals and conceded 0.67 goals. The Estádio José Alvalade has seen an average of 3.2 total goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 20% of these games, and 60% had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between Sporting CP and Benfica, Sporting CP secured 2 wins, Benfica 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Sporting CP has recently dominated at home in these encounters. The last match, on December 5, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.
Key Players
Key players for Sporting CP include Luis Suárez (24 goals, 4 assists, season average rating 7.55), Pedro Gonçalves (13 goals, 6 assists, season average rating 7.61), and Francisco Trincão (6 goals, 11 assists, season average rating 7.36). Benfica relies on Fredrik Aursnes (3 goals, 4 assists, season average rating 7.27), Richard Ríos (2 goals, 3 assists, season average rating 7.08), and Andreas Schjelderup (5 goals, 4 assists, season average rating 7.0). Vangelis Pavlidis (22 goals, 4 assists) and Rafa Silva (2 goals, 0 assists) are not in the lineup, impacting 81% of the usual starting eleven's goal production.
Goalkeepers
Sporting CP's goalkeeper, Rui Silva, recorded 14 clean sheets this season. On the opposing side, Benfica's Anatoliy Trubin also kept 14 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Sporting CP benefits from a strong home advantage, averaging 2.67 home goals scored and only 0.4 goals conceded per game. The Estádio José Alvalade has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 20% of games and 60% featuring over 2.5 goals.