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Liga Portugal

Benfica - Moreirense

04/25/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Benfica
1.8
Total xG
2.4
Moreirense
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

15%

2:0

15%

1:1

11%

0:0

10%

3:0

9%
What influences the xG?
BENMOR

Benfica

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.66
Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.37
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.02
Andreas Schjelderup on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
Gianluca Prestianni on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Tomás Araújo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.83
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.04
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Benfica: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Moreirense: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Benfica: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Benfica: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

24%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Benfica's strong home record with an average of 2.06 home goals and only 0.59 goals conceded
  • Benfica's current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches
  • Benfica's historical dominance in head-to-head matches against Moreirense (3 wins, 2 draws)
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Several key Moreirense players show a declining form trend in their last 5 matches
Overview

Benfica (2nd place, 72 points) host Moreirense (8th place, 39 points) at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Liga Portugal match on April 25, 2026, 6:00 PM. Benfica are fighting for the top spot in Liga Portugal.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Benfica shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches (WWDWW)

Benfica recently won 2-1 away against Sporting CP

Moreirense has a weaker record with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games (LLLDW)

Moreirense's last victory was a 1-0 home win against Estoril

Statistics

Benfica averages 2.1 goals scored per game and concedes 0.63 goals per game

At home, they average 2.06 goals scored and 0.59 goals conceded

Moreirense averages 1.1 goals scored per game and concedes 1.37 goals per game

Away from home, they average 1.07 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded

The Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica has seen an average of 2.6 goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica dominated with 3 wins and 2 draws, with a goal difference of 11:3

Moreirense failed to win any of these direct encounters

The last meeting ended in a 4-0 away victory for Benfica on December 14, 2025

Key Players

For Benfica, Vangelis Pavlidis is crucial with 22 goals and 4 assists, and a season average rating of 7.26

Fredrik Aursnes contributed 3 goals and 4 assists, with a season average rating of 7.25

Dodi Lukébakio showed good form in the last 5 games with 2 goals

For Moreirense, Alan de Souza Guimarães is a key player with 4 goals and 5 assists and a season average rating of 7.01

Travassos scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Rodrigo Alonso Martín has 3 goals and 2 assists in the current season

Goalkeepers

Benfica's goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin has achieved 14 clean sheets this season

Moreirense's goalkeeper André Ferreira has 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

Benfica benefits from home advantage at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica with an average of 2.06 home goals scored and only 0.59 goals conceded

The stadium saw an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

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