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Liga Portugal

AVS - Sporting CP

04/26/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
AVS
0.7
Total xG
2.4
Sporting CP
1.7
Most Likely Scores

0:1

14%

0:2

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
AVSSC

AVS

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.89
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 3, 15 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Tomané not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Sporting CP

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.36
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.34
Declining form (1.5 vs 2.4 season average)
-0.27
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 18, 15 places gap)
+0.12
Luis Suárez on the bench (24 goals, 4 assists)
Geny Catamo on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Maxi Araújo on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Morten Hjulmand not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Gonçalo Inácio not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Eduardo Quaresma on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    AVS with Leonardo Rivas: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sporting CP with Eduardo Quaresma: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Sporting CP: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

14%

Draw

27%

Away Win

59%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

41%

Away or Draw

86%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 59% probability and 1.66 expected goals for Sporting CP
  • Sporting CP shows strong offensive power with an average of 2.55 goals per game, while AVS only scores 0.70 goals on average
  • The historical record clearly favors Sporting CP, who are unbeaten in 3 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 11:2
Risk Factors
  • Only 62% of Sporting CP's usual starting XI goal threat is available, with Luis Suárez (24G/4A), Geny Catamo (6G/3A), Maxi Araujo (4G/3A), Morten Hjulmand (2G/4A), Gonçalo Inácio (1G/3A), and Eduardo Quaresma (1G/2A) not in the lineup
  • AVS scores only an average of 0.69 goals per home game
Overview

AVS (18th place, 13 points) host Sporting CP (3rd place, 71 points) at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

The Liga Portugal match is on April 26, 2026, 8:30 PM

Sporting CP are fighting for the top spots, while AVS are battling against relegation

Form

AVS' current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is LDLDD

The home team recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

Two consecutive games recently ended in a draw

Sporting CP's form is WLWDL

The away team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The last match ended in a loss

AVS recently achieved two consecutive draws

Sporting CP won 2 of their last 5 games

Statistics

AVS scored an average of 0.70 goals per game this season and conceded 2.13 goals per match

AVS failed to score in 17 games

At home, AVS scores an average of 0.69 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per home game

Sporting CP impresses with an average of 2.55 goals per game and concedes only 0.66 goals on average

The away team scored in every game this season

Away from home, Sporting CP scores an average of 2.54 goals and concedes only 0.85 goals

At Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, an average of 2.0 goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches so far, AVS has not yet recorded a win against Sporting CP

Sporting CP won 2 matches, 1 game ended in a draw

The goal difference of 11:2 clearly favors Sporting CP

The last encounter was won by Sporting CP away with 6:0 on December 13, 2026

Sporting CP has been dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For AVS, Pedro Lima Barros (Midfielder) stands out with 2 goals and 2 assists, his form trend is rising

Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, his form is stable

Diego Ariel Duarte Gárce (Attacker) scored 3 goals and shows stable form

For Sporting CP, Pedro Gonçalves (Attacker) is the top player with 13 goals and 6 assists, his recent form is declining

Francisco Trincão (Midfielder) provided 6 goals and 11 assists, his form is stable

Geovany Quenda (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 4 assists, his form trend is recently falling

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Adriel (AVS) kept 4 clean sheets this season

Goalkeeper Rui Silva (Sporting CP) kept a clean sheet in 14 matches

Sporting CP has a significantly better clean sheet record than AVS

Influences

At Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, an average of 2.0 goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

AVS scores an average of 0.69 goals and concedes 1.56 goals per home game

Sporting CP scores an average of 2.54 goals and concedes only 0.85 goals away from home

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