Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora - Porto
04/26/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.7
1.8
1:1
12%0:2
11%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
Estrela Amadora
Porto
The Lab
- 1Porto: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Estrela Amadora with Bruno Langa: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Porto with Rodrigo Mora: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Porto: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5Estrela Amadora: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
17%
Draw
26%
Away Win
57%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
43%
Away or Draw
83%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The analysis indicates Porto as the winner with a 57% probability.
- League Standings: Porto is top of the league, while Estrela Amadora is battling relegation.
- Goalkeeper Performance: Porto's goalkeeper Diogo Costa has 19 clean sheets, Estrela's Renan Ribeiro only 7.
Risk Factors
- Estrela Amadora's goal production is stagnant at 1.0 compared to the season average of 1.3.
- Porto's goal production is stagnant at 1.6 compared to the season average of 1.9.
- Estrela Amadora averaged 3.8 shots on target in the last 5 games (average).
Overview
Estrela Amadora (15th place, 28 points) host Porto (1st place, 79 points) at Estådio José Gomes. The Liga Portugal match is scheduled for April 26, 2026, 7:00 PM. League leaders Porto are fighting for the championship against Estrela Amadora, who are battling against relegation.
Form
Estrela Amadora shows poor form with W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss: LWLLL. They recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches. Their last appearance resulted in a 0-1 away defeat against Arouca. Porto, on the other hand, has a form of DDWLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. They recently beat Tondela 2-0 at home.
Statistics
Estrela Amadora has scored an average of 1.1 goals per home game this season and conceded 1.22 goals. Porto is strong away, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.53 goals conceded per away match. Overall, Estrela Amadora has 7 clean sheets, while Porto has an impressive 19. At Estådio José Gomes, an average of 2.4 goals were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto dominated with 4 wins, while Estrela Amadora secured 1 win. The goal difference stands at 8:3 in favor of Porto. The last encounter on December 15, 2025, ended with a 3-1 away win for Porto.
Key Players
For Estrela Amadora, Abraham Marcus (5 goals, 5 assists), Rodrigo Pinho (4 goals, 1 assist) and Ianis Stoica (2 goals, 2 assists) are the key players. Abraham Marcus is in good form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games. For Porto, Victor Froholdt (6 goals, 7 assists), Gabri Veiga (3 goals, 7 assists) and PepĂȘ (3 goals, 4 assists) stand out. Victor Froholdt scored 2 goals in the last 5 games. Not nominated for the starting lineup for Porto are Zaidu Sanusi (1 goal, 1 assist), Alan Varela (2 goals, 0 assists) and Terem Moffi (1 goal, 1 assist).
Goalkeepers
Estrela Amadora's goalkeeper, Renan Ribeiro, managed 7 clean sheets this season. Porto's goalkeeper, Diogo Costa, recorded an impressive 19 clean sheets.