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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Sporting Braga

04/26/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
0.7
Total xG
2.2
Sporting Braga
1.5
Most Likely Scores

0:1

15%

1:1

13%

0:0

13%

0:2

12%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
SCSB

Santa Clara

Attack weakness (0.51x league average)
-1.02
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.08
Luis Fernando not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Welinton Torrão on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Sporting Braga

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.28
Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Ricardo Horta on the bench (14 goals, 4 assists)
Pau Víctor not in squad (8 goals, 4 assists)
Víctor Gómez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Gabri Martínez not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Gustaf Lagerbielke on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
João Moutinho not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Florian Grillitsch on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Santa Clara: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Sporting Braga with Bright Arrey-Mbi: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santa Clara with Gustavo Klismahn: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Santa Clara: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

16%

Draw

30%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

84%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Sporting Braga's role as favorites is supported by a 54% win probability
  • Braga's strong offense averages 1.93 goals away from home, while Santa Clara scores only 0.87 goals per home game
  • Sporting Braga is unbeaten in five matches (3 wins, 2 draws), whereas Santa Clara shows inconsistent form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Risk Factors
  • Sporting Braga has a short rest period with only 3 days since their last match
  • Santa Clara averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Sporting Braga averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Overview

Santa Clara (14th place, 29 points) host Sporting Braga (4th place, 56 points) at Estádio de São Miguel

Liga Portugal match on April 26, 2026, 6:00 PM

Sporting Braga is fighting for a European spot, while Santa Clara is battling to stay in the league

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 54% probability

Form

Santa Clara's recent form is WWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They have achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last game ended in a draw

Sporting Braga's form is DWWDW

This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 draws from their last five matches, with no losses

Their last result was a win

Statistics

Santa Clara averages 0.87 goals scored per game and concedes 1.23 goals per game this season

At home, they average 0.87 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded per home game

They kept 9 clean sheets in 30 season matches

Sporting Braga averages 1.93 goals scored per game and concedes 0.97 goals per game

Away from home, the team scores 1.93 goals and concedes 1 goal per away game

Sporting Braga has kept 12 clean sheets in 30 season matches

At Estádio de São Miguel, an average of 2.8 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

The pipeline prediction expects 0.70 goals for Santa Clara and 1.46 goals for Sporting Braga

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Santa Clara has not secured any wins

Sporting Braga has won 2 games, with 1 match ending in a draw

The goal difference of 4:1 clearly favors Sporting Braga

The last encounter on December 15, 2025, ended in a 0:1 away win for Sporting Braga

The recent record shows dominance by Sporting Braga

Key Players

For Santa Clara, Serginho (4 goals, 2 assists, AvgRating 6.96) and Gabriel Silva (4 goals, AvgRating 6.83) are key players

Gonçalo Paciência contributed 2 goals with an AvgRating of 6.64

For Sporting Braga, Rodrigo Zalazar stands out with 15 goals and 4 assists (AvgRating 7.45)

Fran Navarro scored 6 goals and 1 assist (AvgRating 6.6)

Vítor Carvalho contributed 2 goals and 1 assist (AvgRating 7.02)

Goalkeepers

For Santa Clara, Gabriel Batista will guard the goal, having kept 9 clean sheets this season

Sporting Braga starts Tiago Sá, who has not made any appearances this season

Sporting Braga has recorded a total of 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

Sporting Braga shows significant away strength with an average of 1.93 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded per away game

Santa Clara scores an average of 0.87 goals and concedes 1.07 goals at home

The grass pitch at Estádio de São Miguel is the usual surface for both teams

The pipeline analysis expects over 1.5 goals to be scored with 65% probability

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