Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães - Rio Ave
04/25/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.0
0.8
0:0
15%1:0
15%1:1
14%2:0
10%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Vitória Guimarães
Rio Ave
The Lab
- 1Rio Ave: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Vitória Guimarães with Miguel Nogueira: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Rio Ave: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Vitória Guimarães: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Vitória Guimarães: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
33%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Home Strength: Vitória Guimarães is defensively stable at home, conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game
- Offensive Form: According to Advanced Stats, both teams show a positive offensive trend, with higher current goal rates than their season average
- Head-to-Head: Vitória Guimarães dominated the last 5 encounters with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Rio Ave
Risk Factors
- Draw Probability: The mathematical analysis indicates a draw with a 33% probability
- Away Form: Rio Ave shows positive form in their last five matches with 3 wins and 1 draw
Overview
Vitória Guimarães (7th place, 39 points) host Rio Ave (12th place, 34 points) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Liga Portugal match on April 25, 2026, 8:30 PM
The mathematical analysis indicates a home win with 46% probability
Form
Vitória Guimarães' form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in the last five matches is LLWDW
The team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses during this period
The last result was a 1-0 away win against Gil Vicente
Rio Ave's form in the last five matches is WWLWD
This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Most recently, Rio Ave drew 2-2 at home against AVS
Statistics
Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.20 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.43 goals per game this season
At home, the team scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 0.9 goals per match
Rio Ave scores an average of 1.10 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.67 goals per game this season
Away from home, the team scores 1.13 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per match
The Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques has seen an average of 2.8 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of matches at the stadium, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória Guimarães dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Rio Ave and 1 draw
Vitória Guimarães scored 8 goals in these matches, Rio Ave scored 4 goals
The last encounter was won by Vitória Guimarães at home with a 1-0 score on December 13, 2025
Key Players
For Vitória Guimarães, Samu (6 goals, 3 assists, average rating 6.91) and Gustavo Silva (5 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.88) are key offensive players with rising form
Oumar Camara has 5 goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 6.73
For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa (6 goals, 0 assists, average rating 7.13) is an in-form attacker
Dario Spikic contributed 2 goals and 3 assists, with an average rating of 6.69
Marios Vrousai (1 goal, 2 assists, average rating 7.07) also shows rising form
Goalkeepers
Vitória Guimarães' goalkeeper, Charles, made 15 appearances this season
Vitória Guimarães' team recorded 9 clean sheets this season
For Rio Ave, Cezary Miszta was in goal for 18 season games
Rio Ave kept 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Vitória Guimarães shows defensive stability at home, conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game
The Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques has averaged 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches