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Liga Portugal

Alverca - Arouca

04/24/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Alverca
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Arouca
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ALVARO

Alverca

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.15
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Arouca

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.48
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Alverca with Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Alverca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Alverca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Arouca with Alfonso Trezza: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 3.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

32%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Alverca with a probability of 46%
  • Arouca has a weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.38 goals per game
  • Alverca shows positive offensive development, currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.1 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Arouca averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • D. NandĆ­n Berrutti is unavailable for Arouca due to an Unknown Injury
Overview

Alverca (10th place, 35 points) hosts Arouca (11th place, 35 points) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Liga Portugal match on April 24, 2026, 8:15 PM

Both teams are level on points in the table and are vying for a better mid-table position

Form

Alverca's form in the last five games is "DLWWL"

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last match ended in a loss for Alverca

Arouca's form in the last five games is "LWWLW"

This corresponds to 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses

Arouca won their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Alverca scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.6 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 1.07 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded with 5 clean sheets

Arouca scored an average of 1.27 goals and conceded 1.93 goals per game this season

Away, Arouca averaged 1.23 goals scored and 2.38 goals conceded with 4 clean sheets

The Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head match between these teams so far

Arouca won this sole encounter away on December 14, 2025, with a score of 1:0

Key Players

For Alverca, Figueiredo shows rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games and is in stable form

Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games and also shows stable form

For Arouca, Tiago Esgaio shows rising form with 1 goal in the last 4 games

IvƔn Barbero scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, but his form is declining

Goalkeepers

Alverca's goalkeeper Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira played in 5 season appearances

Home team Alverca achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Arouca's goalkeeper Ignacio de Arruabarrena played in 12 season appearances

Away team Arouca achieved 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Alverca scored an average of 1.07 goals at home and conceded 1.5 goals

Arouca conceded an average of 2.38 goals away

The grass pitch at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca recorded an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches

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