Liga Portugal
Estoril - Famalicão
04/26/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.1
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
11%0:1
11%2:1
7%What influences the xG?
Estoril
Famalicão
The Lab
- 1Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 2Estoril with Ferro: 0.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Famalicão with Gustavo Sá: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Famalicão: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Yanis Begraoui: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
33%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Famalicão's strong recent form (2 wins, 3 draws) and positive trend
- Estoril's ongoing negative run with 4 consecutive losses and negative form trend
- Famalicão's defensive stability with 0.9 goals conceded per game and 14 clean sheets
Risk Factors
- Estoril's goal production is currently stagnant (1.0) compared to their season average (1.8)
- Famalicão's recent expected goals (xG) were 0.79, significantly below their season average of 1.26
- Estoril is without K. Boma (Muscle Injury)
Overview
Estoril (10th place, 37 points) host Famalicão (5th place, 48 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 26, 2026, 3:30 PM. Famalicão aims to consolidate its higher league position, while Estoril tries to close the gap
Form
Estoril shows a form of WLLLL across all competitions, with 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses. The team recently recorded 4 consecutive losses. In their last game, Estoril lost 0-1 to Moreirense. Famalicão, on the other hand, presents a form of WWDDD, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses. The team has drawn their last 3 matches. In their last game, Famalicão drew 2-2 with Sporting Braga
Statistics
Estoril scored an average of 1.7 goals per game this season and conceded 1.7 goals. Famalicão scored an average of 1.27 goals and conceded 0.9 goals per game. Estoril had both teams score in 17 matches, while Famalicão had it in 11 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 20 Estoril matches and 12 Famalicão matches. At the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, the last 5 games averaged 3.0 total goals, with 80% BTTS matches and 80% Over 2.5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Estoril, 2 for Famalicão, and 1 draw. The goal difference is 4:9 in favor of Famalicão. The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 4-0 victory for Famalicão. The historical balance is generally even, with Famalicão clearly winning the last encounter
Key Players
Estoril's offense is led by Yanis Begraoui, who contributed 19 goals and 1 assist this season and shows a slightly declining form. João Carvalho is an important midfielder with 6 goals and 12 assists, also with declining form. Jordan Holsgrove contributes with 1 goal and 7 assists and also shows a declining form trend. For Famalicão, Gil Dias is a key attacking player with 4 goals and 7 assists, whose form is stable. Sorriso scored 5 goals and 4 assists and shows stable form. Justin de Haas is an important defender with 4 goals, but his form is slightly declining
Goalkeepers
Estoril's goalkeeper is Martin Turk, who has made one appearance this season. The Estoril team recorded a total of 5 clean sheets. For Famalicão, Lazar Carević is in goal, having played 30 games this season. The Famalicão team managed to keep 14 clean sheets this season
Influences
Estoril scores an average of 1.75 goals at home and concedes 1.38 goals. Famalicão scores an average of 1.27 goals away and concedes 1.55 goals. The playing surface at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota is grass. The last 5 games at this stadium showed high goal involvement with an average of 3.0 goals per game, 80% BTTS, and 80% Over 2.5