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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Casa Pia

04/27/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.4
Total xG
2.1
Casa Pia
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

0:0

14%

1:1

14%

2:0

12%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
GVCP

Gil Vicente

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.38
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.05
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
AgustĂ­n Nahuel Moreira Morales on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Antonio Espigares Morillas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Casa Pia

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.57
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap)
-0.08
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Casa Pia with Pedro Rosas: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Gil Vicente: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Gil Vicente: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Gil Vicente with José Carlos Teixeira Lopes dos Reis Gonçalves: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

31%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Gil Vicente's home strength (1.47 goals scored, 0.76 goals conceded) meets Casa Pia's away defensive weaknesses (2.42 goals conceded)
  • The mathematical analysis clearly favors Gil Vicente with a 52% win probability
  • Casa Pia is in a negative run of form with 0 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games, scoring only 0.5 goals on average
Risk Factors
  • Casa Pia shows significant defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 2.42 goals per away game
  • Casa Pia's goal production has been very low recently, with only 0.5 goals per game in current form
  • Pipeline predictions indicate a relatively low probability for over 2.5 goals (35%) and both teams to score (40%)
Overview

Gil Vicente (6th place, 46 points) host Casa Pia (16th place, 26 points) at EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos in Liga Portugal. The match is scheduled for April 27, 2026, 8:15 PM. Gil Vicente is striving for a better position in the upper mid-table, while Casa Pia needs crucial points in the relegation battle. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 52% probability.

Form

Gil Vicente's current form across all competitions is DLWDL, indicating 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. Gil Vicente suffered a loss in their last match. Casa Pia shows weaker form with LDLDL, recording 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games. They also lost their most recent match. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Gil Vicente has scored an average of 1.47 goals per game this season and conceded 1.03 goals. At home, they are defensively stable with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded. Casa Pia is weaker offensively with 0.93 goals per game and a vulnerable defense conceding an average of 1.77 goals. Casa Pia's away defense deteriorates significantly, conceding an average of 2.42 goals per away game. Gil Vicente's goal production has recently stalled (1.4), while the season average is 1.6. Casa Pia's goal production has also stalled (0.5), with a season average of 1.1.

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters so far, there has been an even record with 1 win for Gil Vicente, 1 win for Casa Pia, and 3 draws. Gil Vicente scored a total of 4 goals, while Casa Pia scored 3 goals. The last meeting on December 13, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.

Key Players

For Gil Vicente, key players include Murilo de Souza Costa with 9 goals and 4 assists this season, midfielder Luís André Leite Esteves with 3 goals and 8 assists, and Santiago García Gonzålez with 6 goals and 3 assists. For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant stands out with 3 goals and 8 assists, followed by Cassiano with 5 season goals and Gaizka Larrazabal with 3 goals and 4 assists.

Goalkeepers

Daniel Alexis Leite Figueira of Gil Vicente has kept 6 clean sheets in home games this season. Patrick Sequeira of Casa Pia has secured 4 clean sheets in away games.

Influences

EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games. Gil Vicente shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.47 goals scored and only 0.76 goals conceded per home game. Casa Pia, however, is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.42 goals per away game.

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