Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim - VfL Wolfsburg
03/14/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.1
0.8
2:0
11%2:1
10%1:1
10%3:0
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
TSG Hoffenheim
VfL Wolfsburg
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
69%
Draw
20%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
31%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a high 69% probability for a Hoffenheim home win
- Offensive strength vs. defensive weakness: Hoffenheim's 2.08 home goals per game meets Wolfsburg's vulnerable away defense, conceding 2.70 goals
- Form trend: Hoffenheim shows more stable form with 2 wins and 1 draw, while Wolfsburg has lost 4 of their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- VfL Wolfsburg concedes an average of 2.70 goals per away game
- VfL Wolfsburg generates few dangerous offensive actions with an average of 3.2 shots on target
Overview
TSG Hoffenheim (3rd place, 49 points) hosts VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 20 points) at the PreZero Arena
Bundesliga match on March 14, 2026, 3:30 PM
Hoffenheim is fighting for a Champions League spot, while Wolfsburg is in a relegation battle
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hoffenheim with 69%
Form
TSG Hoffenheim shows mixed form with LWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games
The team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last result was a 4-2 away win against Heidenheim
VfL Wolfsburg is in a difficult phase with LDLLL in their last five games
The team achieved 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
Their last match ended in a 1-2 home defeat against Hamburger SV
Statistics
TSG Hoffenheim averages 2.12 goals scored per game and concedes 1.32 goals
In home games, the average is 2.08 goals scored and 1.08 goals conceded
VfL Wolfsburg averages 1.36 goals scored and concedes 2.20 goals per match
Away from home, Wolfsburg scores 1.40 goals and concedes an alarming 2.70 goals per game
The stadium has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and 3 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TSG Hoffenheim secured 2 wins, VfL Wolfsburg 1 win, and there were 2 draws
TSG Hoffenheim scored 10 goals, while VfL Wolfsburg scored 8 goals
The last encounter on November 2, 2025, was won by Hoffenheim with a 3-2 scoreline
Hoffenheim has been more dominant in recent meetings
Key Players
For TSG Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric stands out with 10 goals and 5 assists in 25 appearances
His form is rising with 2 goals in the last 2 games
Fisnik Asllani contributed 8 goals and 6 assists and also shows rising form
Wouter Burger has delivered 4 goals and 6 assists
For VfL Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura is the top scorer with 8 goals and 3 assists
Dzenan Pejcinovic contributed 5 goals
Christian Eriksen provided 2 goals and 5 assists
Goalkeepers
Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim made 25 season appearances with 6 clean sheets
Kamil Grabara of VfL Wolfsburg also played 25 matches but achieved only 1 clean sheet
Influences
The PreZero Arena records an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
TSG Hoffenheim is possession-dominant with 58% possession and 7.0 shots on target, indicating strong offensive capabilities
VfL Wolfsburg is counter-attacking oriented with 41% possession and an average of 3.2 shots on target