Liga Portugal
Tondela - Nacional
04/25/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Tondela
Nacional
The Lab
- 1Tondela with Hugo Félix: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Nacional with Gabriel Veron: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Nacional: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Nacional: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Mathematical analysis: Tondela is predicted to win with a 44% probability, making them slight home favorites
- Tondela's Offensive Weakness: Tondela's goal production has declined to 0.5 goals per game recently, compared to 0.8 on average for the season
- Nacional's Improved Form: Nacional has won 2 of their last 5 games, including their last match
Risk Factors
- Tondela's Reduced Goal Threat: Maranhão is missing, reducing the usual starting XI goal threat to 65%
- Low Shots on Target: Tondela averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Nacional's Away Defense: Nacional concedes an average of 1.82 goals per away game
Overview
Tondela (17th place, 21 points) host Nacional (14th place, 28 points) at Estádio João Cardoso. The Liga Portugal match takes place on April 25, 2026, 4:30 PM. Both teams are battling in the lower half of the table, with Nacional holding a slight lead.
Form
Tondela is going through a tough period with a form of LDLDL in their last five matches, which means 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last game ended in a loss. Nacional's form in their last five outings is LLWLW, with 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses. Nacional won their last match. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Tondela averages 0.72 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.66 goals. At home, the average is 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. Nacional scores an average of 1.07 goals per match and concedes 1.37 goals. Away from home, Nacional averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded. At Estádio João Cardoso, the last 5 games averaged 2.2 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In head-to-head encounters, there has only been one match so far. Nacional won this sole meeting. The last match, on December 15, 2025, ended in a 1:3 away victory for Nacional.
Key Players
For Tondela, Rony Lopes is notable with 2 goals and 2 assists, holding a season average rating of 6.9. Bebeto has scored 2 goals and provided 0 assists, while Joe Hodge has 1 goal and 1 assist this season. For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez stands out with 15 goals and 0 assists with an average rating of 7.2. José Gomes contributes with 1 goal and 5 assists, and Paulinho Bóia has 4 goals and 2 assists.
Goalkeepers
Bernardo, Tondela's goalkeeper, played in 29 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.93. He kept 5 clean sheets. Kaique, Nacional's goalkeeper, made 24 appearances and has an average rating of 6.97. He kept 6 clean sheets.
Influences
Tondela's home performance shows an average of 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded. At Estádio João Cardoso, an average of 2.2 total goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals scored in 40% of matches.